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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/iceberg_BTC_1h_720_20260810-083221.json
T
ramseshk ad4036713e feat: recent-window backtests (week/month/year) — 207 clean results 
Archived 639 old full-history results. Re-ran sweep on time-windowed
bar limits matching practical trading horizons:

  Last week bars:  1h=168, 4h=42,  1d=7
  Last month bars: 1h=720, 4h=180, 1d=30
  Last year bars:  1h=5000, 4h=2190, 1d=365

270/270 sweep succeeded, 63 zero-trade files archived.
207 results with real trades remain.

Key findings on RECENT (year) data only:

  grid_mm:    S=13.8 (1h), S=9.3 (4h), S=8.1 (1d)
  as_mm:      S=14.8 (1h), S=8.0 (4h), S=3.3 (1d)
  composite:  S=3.2 (1h), S=2.3 (4h), S=0.7 (1d)
  mean_rev:   1d only viable (S=3.5)

  Directional strategies (momentum, obi, iceberg, hurst_vpin)
  all show near-zero or negative Sharpe on recent data.

  Market-making dominates in sideways crypto markets.

Added --window flag to sweep_runner for week/month/year presets
2026-08-10 16:35:25 +08:00

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{"strategy": "iceberg", "interval": "1h", "n_bars": 721, "start_equity": 10000.0, "end_equity": 8643.93, "total_return_pct": -13.56, "pnl": -1356.07, "sharpe": -12.025, "sortino": -14.566, "max_drawdown_pct": 13.66, "win_rate": 0.216, "profit_factor": 0.121, "expectancy": -36.65, "trades": [{"time": "2026-07-13 01:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.156292, "entry_px": 63953.89, "exit_px": 63340.6, "pnl_gross": -104.806, "pnl_net": -113.7588, "fee": 8.9528, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -1.049, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-13 05:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.155938, "entry_px": 63427.36, "exit_px": 62751.19, "pnl_gross": -114.2961, "pnl_net": -123.1504, "fee": 8.854214, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -1.156, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-13 16:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.156704, "entry_px": 62388.33, "exit_px": 62214.72, "pnl_gross": -35.9909, "pnl_net": -44.7775, "fee": 8.786608, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.368, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-14 19:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151348, "entry_px": 64358.29, "exit_px": 64478.46, "pnl_gross": 9.4118, "pnl_net": 0.6372, "fee": 8.774633, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.097, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-15 18:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.148917, "entry_px": 65472.41, "exit_px": 64780.15, "pnl_gross": -111.8164, "pnl_net": -120.545, "fee": 8.728569, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -1.147, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-16 11:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150202, "entry_px": 64168.1, "exit_px": 64170.76, "pnl_gross": -8.2748, "pnl_net": -16.9494, "fee": 8.674539, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.086, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-16 17:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.149117, "entry_px": 64579.51, "exit_px": 63992.94, "pnl_gross": -96.0953, "pnl_net": -104.7229, "fee": 8.627552, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.998, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-17 20:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150699, "entry_px": 63264.2, "exit_px": 64053.88, "pnl_gross": 110.37, "pnl_net": 101.736, "fee": 8.634018, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 1.158, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-18 23:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.149342, "entry_px": 64577.51, "exit_px": 64762.17, "pnl_gross": 18.8854, "pnl_net": 10.1933, "fee": 8.692131, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.196, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-20 09:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.148974, "entry_px": 64863.8, "exit_px": 64122.81, "pnl_gross": -119.0349, "pnl_net": -127.682, "fee": 8.647043, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -1.232, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-20 18:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.145421, "entry_px": 65630.56, "exit_px": 65134.8, "pnl_gross": -80.6518, "pnl_net": -89.209, "fee": 8.557213, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.845, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-20 22:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.145223, "entry_px": 65165.1, "exit_px": 65034.9, "pnl_gross": -27.4166, "pnl_net": -35.9252, "fee": 8.508616, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.29, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-21 16:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.141227, "entry_px": 66814.75, "exit_px": 66444.49, "pnl_gross": -60.7594, "pnl_net": -69.2283, "fee": 8.468911, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.644, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-22 09:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.142128, "entry_px": 65963.9, "exit_px": 65836.1, "pnl_gross": -26.5935, "pnl_net": -35.0232, "fee": 8.429612, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.284, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-22 20:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.141459, "entry_px": 66088.02, "exit_px": 65824.11, "pnl_gross": -45.7297, "pnl_net": -54.1268, "fee": 8.397071, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.489, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-23 17:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.143289, "entry_px": 64924.86, "exit_px": 64591.34, "pnl_gross": -56.1404, "pnl_net": -64.4916, "fee": 8.351211, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.603, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-24 17:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.144221, "entry_px": 64116.05, "exit_px": 64104.83, "pnl_gross": -9.9398, "pnl_net": -18.2613, "fee": 8.321465, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.107, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-26 19:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.142542, "entry_px": 64801.74, "exit_px": 64604.33, "pnl_gross": -36.4392, "pnl_net": -44.7398, "fee": 8.30061, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.394, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-27 02:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.14059, "entry_px": 65442.38, "exit_px": 65082.85, "pnl_gross": -58.8034, "pnl_net": -67.0611, "fee": 8.257744, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.639, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-27 19:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.141226, "entry_px": 64731.67, "exit_px": 64884.05, "pnl_gross": 13.2832, "pnl_net": 5.0459, "fee": 8.237299, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.145, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-28 03:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.143497, "entry_px": 63799.74, "exit_px": 63256.68, "pnl_gross": -86.1311, "pnl_net": -94.3356, "fee": 8.204497, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.941, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-28 18:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.141758, "entry_px": 63974.91, "exit_px": 63637.3, "pnl_gross": -55.9997, "pnl_net": -64.1402, "fee": 8.140523, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.617, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-29 22:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.140812, "entry_px": 64006.94, "exit_px": 63854.08, "pnl_gross": -29.6267, "pnl_net": -37.7287, "fee": 8.101965, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.329, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-31 05:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.139642, "entry_px": 64331.27, "exit_px": 64265.67, "pnl_gross": -17.241, "pnl_net": -25.3219, "fee": 8.08089, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.192, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-31 20:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.142928, "entry_px": 62731.67, "exit_px": 62858.08, "pnl_gross": 9.9899, "pnl_net": 1.9123, "fee": 8.077631, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.111, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-01 23:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.142596, "entry_px": 62947.88, "exit_px": 62727.21, "pnl_gross": -39.5317, "pnl_net": -47.5961, "fee": 8.064344, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.44, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-02 05:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.140746, "entry_px": 63494.43, "exit_px": 63368.57, "pnl_gross": -25.7497, "pnl_net": -33.7847, "fee": 8.034957, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.288, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-03 02:00:00", "side": "BUY", 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"size": 0.135997, "entry_px": 64809.75, "exit_px": 64520.42, "pnl_gross": -47.2627, "pnl_net": -55.1776, "fee": 7.914832, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.536, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-07 16:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.135163, "entry_px": 64859.79, "exit_px": 64711.22, "pnl_gross": -27.9623, "pnl_net": -35.8433, "fee": 7.880943, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.319, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-07 21:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.134951, "entry_px": 64754.69, "exit_px": 64819.12, "pnl_gross": 0.8256, "pnl_net": -7.0431, "fee": 7.868752, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.009, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-08 19:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.134192, "entry_px": 65127.06, "exit_px": 64978.96, "pnl_gross": -27.7313, "pnl_net": -35.588, "fee": 7.856634, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.317, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-09 18:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.13342, "entry_px": 65296.23, "exit_px": 65096.84, "pnl_gross": -34.4317, "pnl_net": -42.2604, "fee": 7.82867, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.395, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-10 03:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.133275, "entry_px": 65109.04, "exit_px": 64887.05, "pnl_gross": -37.3829, "pnl_net": -45.1792, "fee": 7.796353, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.431, "duration": ""}], "params": {"vol_mult": 1.8, "min_consec": 3, "max_hold": 8, "type": "Momentum"}, "fee_info": {"entry_fee": 0.045, "exit_fee": 0.045, "total_fee": 0.09, "taker_rate_pct": 0.045, "maker_rate_pct": 0.015, "effective_rate_pct": 0.045, "vip_tier": 0, "staking_tier": "none", "fee_model": "taker", "tier_name": "Tier 0 (<$5M)", "staking_name": "No Stake"}, "equity_curve": [{"t": "2026-07-11T08:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-07-11T09:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-07-11T10:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-07-11T11:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": 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