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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/pairs_BTC_4h_365_20260810-082643.json
T
ramseshk ad4036713e feat: recent-window backtests (week/month/year) — 207 clean results 
Archived 639 old full-history results. Re-ran sweep on time-windowed
bar limits matching practical trading horizons:

  Last week bars:  1h=168, 4h=42,  1d=7
  Last month bars: 1h=720, 4h=180, 1d=30
  Last year bars:  1h=5000, 4h=2190, 1d=365

270/270 sweep succeeded, 63 zero-trade files archived.
207 results with real trades remain.

Key findings on RECENT (year) data only:

  grid_mm:    S=13.8 (1h), S=9.3 (4h), S=8.1 (1d)
  as_mm:      S=14.8 (1h), S=8.0 (4h), S=3.3 (1d)
  composite:  S=3.2 (1h), S=2.3 (4h), S=0.7 (1d)
  mean_rev:   1d only viable (S=3.5)

  Directional strategies (momentum, obi, iceberg, hurst_vpin)
  all show near-zero or negative Sharpe on recent data.

  Market-making dominates in sideways crypto markets.

Added --window flag to sweep_runner for week/month/year presets
2026-08-10 16:35:25 +08:00

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{"strategy": "pairs", "interval": "4h", "n_bars": 366, "start_equity": 10000.0, "end_equity": 9551.01, "total_return_pct": -4.49, "pnl": -448.99, "sharpe": -1.267, "sortino": -1.899, "max_drawdown_pct": 8.54, "win_rate": 0.333, "profit_factor": 0.544, "expectancy": -49.887, "trades": [{"time": "2026-06-17 16:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.148459, "entry_px": 67328.26, "exit_px": 64222.71, "pnl_gross": -469.8358, "pnl_net": -478.6242, "fee": 8.788466, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -4.7, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-06-22 16:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.147244, "entry_px": 64694.63, "exit_px": 64417.52, "pnl_gross": -49.3579, "pnl_net": -57.9129, "fee": 8.554945, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.518, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-05 12:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.156729, "entry_px": 60464.4, "exit_px": 62672.26, "pnl_gross": 337.3518, "pnl_net": 328.6672, "fee": 8.684589, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 3.56, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-12 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.152769, "entry_px": 64239.18, "exit_px": 64153.78, "pnl_gross": -21.8719, "pnl_net": -30.6984, "fee": 8.826509, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.223, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-16 16:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.152447, "entry_px": 64231.17, "exit_px": 64198.74, "pnl_gross": -13.7543, "pnl_net": -22.5648, "fee": 8.81044, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.14, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-21 16:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150308, "entry_px": 65053.99, "exit_px": 66350.58, "pnl_gross": 186.0004, "pnl_net": 177.1123, "fee": 8.888021, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 1.902, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-23 16:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150769, "entry_px": 66088.02, "exit_px": 64769.17, "pnl_gross": -207.7212, "pnl_net": -216.5994, "fee": 8.878143, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -2.085, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-28 08:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150558, "entry_px": 64801.74, "exit_px": 63377.56, "pnl_gross": -223.1057, "pnl_net": -231.79, "fee": 8.684289, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -2.287, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-07 12:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.147433, "entry_px": 64662.6, "exit_px": 64811.12, "pnl_gross": 13.3077, "pnl_net": 4.7178, "fee": 8.589915, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.14, "duration": ""}], "params": {"z_entry": 1.5, "z_exit": 0.5, "lookback": 20, "type": "Stat Arb"}, "fee_info": {"entry_fee": 0.045, "exit_fee": 0.045, "total_fee": 0.09, "taker_rate_pct": 0.045, "maker_rate_pct": 0.015, "effective_rate_pct": 0.045, "vip_tier": 0, "staking_tier": "none", "fee_model": "taker", "tier_name": "Tier 0 (<$5M)", "staking_name": "No Stake"}, "equity_curve": [{"t": "2026-06-10T12:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-06-10T16:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": 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