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Optimal position sizing: 4x BTC, 40x ETH utilization

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Strategy          Old→New Notional   Capital Utilization
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
OBI (BTC)          3→1           12%→51%  (4x)
Iceberg (BTC)      3→4           13%→54%  (4x)
Funding (BTC)      4→8           14%→58%  (4x)
A-S MM (BTC)       5→1           15%→61%  (4x)
Hurst VPIN (BTC)   5→4           15%→64%  (4x)
Momentum (ETH)     →8             1%→38%  (40x)
Mean Reversion (ETH) →3           1%→43%  (45x)
Kalman Pairs (ETH) 0→8           10%→48%  (5x)
Pairs Trading (ETH) 1→2          11%→52%  (5x)

ETH strategies were using <1% of capital — essentially generating no PnL.
Kelly-based optimal sizing: 40-65% utilization is the sweet spot for
balancing return vs drawdown at 00/strategy scale.
This commit is contained in:
ramseshk
2026-08-06 08:16:48 +00:00
parent 74113ab624
commit 37b8496dc2
2 changed files with 17 additions and 17 deletions
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live/node.py
+9 -9
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@@ -31,15 +31,15 @@ RESERVE = 398.0
MAKER_FEE = 0.0002
STRATEGIES = {
"Order Book Imbalance": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000200,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"reversal","description":"L2 bid/ask volume skew — buys when bids dominate, sells when asks dominate."},
"Iceberg Detection": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000210,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Detects whale TWAP accumulation — follows smart money flow."},
"Funding Rate Arb": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000220,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"carry","description":"Delta-neutral carry — holds spot, shorts perp, collects funding."},
"Pairs Trading": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.006,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"stat_arb","description":"BTC/ETH ratio Z-score — trades when spread exceeds 1.5σ."},
"Avellaneda-Stoikov": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000230,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"market_making","description":"Dual-sided quoting at best bid/ask — captures spread via stochastic control. Places both sides simultaneously."},
"Momentum Breakout": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.0005,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Bollinger Band (1.2σ) breakout on ETH — enters when price breaks bands."},
"Mean Reversion": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.0005,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"reversal","description":"VWAP deviation on ETH — buys below VWAP, sells above. Higher vol = more reversion."},
"Kalman Pairs": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.005,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"stat_arb","description":"Kalman-filter adaptive hedge ratio — tracks evolving BTC/ETH beta with every tick."},
"Hurst VPIN": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000240,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Hurst exponent regime filter + VPIN informed flow — enters when both align trending + high flow imbalance."}
"Order Book Imbalance": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000800,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"reversal","description":"L2 bid/ask volume skew — buys when bids dominate, sells when asks dominate."},
"Iceberg Detection": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000850,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Detects whale TWAP accumulation — follows smart money flow."},
"Funding Rate Arb": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000900,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"carry","description":"Delta-neutral carry — holds spot, shorts perp, collects funding."},
"Pairs Trading": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.027500,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"stat_arb","description":"BTC/ETH ratio Z-score — trades when spread exceeds 1.5σ."},
"Avellaneda-Stoikov": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000950,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"market_making","description":"Dual-sided quoting at best bid/ask — captures spread via stochastic control. Places both sides simultaneously."},
"Momentum Breakout": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.020000,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Bollinger Band (1.2σ) breakout on ETH — enters when price breaks bands."},
"Mean Reversion": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.022500,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"reversal","description":"VWAP deviation on ETH — buys below VWAP, sells above. Higher vol = more reversion."},
"Kalman Pairs": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.025000,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"stat_arb","description":"Kalman-filter adaptive hedge ratio — tracks evolving BTC/ETH beta with every tick."},
"Hurst VPIN": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.001000,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Hurst exponent regime filter + VPIN informed flow — enters when both align trending + high flow imbalance."}
}
trades_log: list[dict] = []