Optimal position sizing: 4x BTC, 40x ETH utilization
Strategy Old→New Notional Capital Utilization ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────── OBI (BTC) 3→1 12%→51% (4x) Iceberg (BTC) 3→4 13%→54% (4x) Funding (BTC) 4→8 14%→58% (4x) A-S MM (BTC) 5→1 15%→61% (4x) Hurst VPIN (BTC) 5→4 15%→64% (4x) Momentum (ETH) →8 1%→38% (40x) Mean Reversion (ETH) →3 1%→43% (45x) Kalman Pairs (ETH) 0→8 10%→48% (5x) Pairs Trading (ETH) 1→2 11%→52% (5x) ETH strategies were using <1% of capital — essentially generating no PnL. Kelly-based optimal sizing: 40-65% utilization is the sweet spot for balancing return vs drawdown at 00/strategy scale.
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ramseshk
+9
-9
@@ -31,15 +31,15 @@ RESERVE = 398.0
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MAKER_FEE = 0.0002
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STRATEGIES = {
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"Order Book Imbalance": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000200,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"reversal","description":"L2 bid/ask volume skew — buys when bids dominate, sells when asks dominate."},
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"Iceberg Detection": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000210,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Detects whale TWAP accumulation — follows smart money flow."},
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"Funding Rate Arb": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000220,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"carry","description":"Delta-neutral carry — holds spot, shorts perp, collects funding."},
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"Pairs Trading": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.006,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"stat_arb","description":"BTC/ETH ratio Z-score — trades when spread exceeds 1.5σ."},
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"Avellaneda-Stoikov": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000230,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"market_making","description":"Dual-sided quoting at best bid/ask — captures spread via stochastic control. Places both sides simultaneously."},
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"Momentum Breakout": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.0005,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Bollinger Band (1.2σ) breakout on ETH — enters when price breaks bands."},
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"Mean Reversion": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.0005,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"reversal","description":"VWAP deviation on ETH — buys below VWAP, sells above. Higher vol = more reversion."},
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"Kalman Pairs": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.005,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"stat_arb","description":"Kalman-filter adaptive hedge ratio — tracks evolving BTC/ETH beta with every tick."},
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"Hurst VPIN": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000240,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Hurst exponent regime filter + VPIN informed flow — enters when both align trending + high flow imbalance."}
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"Order Book Imbalance": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000800,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"reversal","description":"L2 bid/ask volume skew — buys when bids dominate, sells when asks dominate."},
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"Iceberg Detection": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000850,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Detects whale TWAP accumulation — follows smart money flow."},
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"Funding Rate Arb": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000900,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"carry","description":"Delta-neutral carry — holds spot, shorts perp, collects funding."},
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"Pairs Trading": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.027500,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"stat_arb","description":"BTC/ETH ratio Z-score — trades when spread exceeds 1.5σ."},
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"Avellaneda-Stoikov": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000950,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"market_making","description":"Dual-sided quoting at best bid/ask — captures spread via stochastic control. Places both sides simultaneously."},
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"Momentum Breakout": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.020000,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Bollinger Band (1.2σ) breakout on ETH — enters when price breaks bands."},
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"Mean Reversion": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.022500,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"reversal","description":"VWAP deviation on ETH — buys below VWAP, sells above. Higher vol = more reversion."},
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"Kalman Pairs": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.025000,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"stat_arb","description":"Kalman-filter adaptive hedge ratio — tracks evolving BTC/ETH beta with every tick."},
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"Hurst VPIN": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.001000,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Hurst exponent regime filter + VPIN informed flow — enters when both align trending + high flow imbalance."}
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}
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trades_log: list[dict] = []
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@@ -42,49 +42,49 @@ STRATEGIES = {
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"allocation": 10000.0, "instrument": "BTC", "pnl": 0.0,
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"trades_today": 0, "wins": 0, "win_rate": 0.0, "status": "idle",
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"position": 0.0, "entry_price": 0.0, "fee_paid": 0.0,
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"signals": [], "type": "reversal", "size": 0.002, "fee_model": "taker",
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"signals": [], "type": "reversal", "size":0.000800, "fee_model": "taker",
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"description": "L2 bid/ask volume skew — buys when bids dominate, sells when asks dominate. Mean-reverting at volume extremes.",
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},
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"Iceberg Detection": {
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"allocation": 10000.0, "instrument": "BTC", "pnl": 0.0,
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"trades_today": 0, "wins": 0, "win_rate": 0.0, "status": "idle",
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"position": 0.0, "entry_price": 0.0, "fee_paid": 0.0,
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"signals": [], "type": "momentum", "size": 0.001, "fee_model": "taker",
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"signals": [], "type": "momentum", "size":0.000850, "fee_model": "taker",
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"description": "Detects whale accumulation (many small buys over time). Follows the smart money flow.",
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},
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"Funding Rate Arb": {
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"allocation": 10000.0, "instrument": "BTC", "pnl": 0.0,
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"trades_today": 0, "wins": 0, "win_rate": 0.0, "status": "idle",
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"position": 0.0, "entry_price": 0.0, "fee_paid": 0.0,
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"signals": [], "type": "carry", "size": 0.005, "fee_model": "taker",
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"signals": [], "type": "carry", "size":0.000900, "fee_model": "taker",
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"description": "Delta-neutral carry trade — shorts perp when funding rate is high, collects hourly payments.",
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},
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"Pairs Trading": {
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"allocation": 10000.0, "instrument": "ETH", "pnl": 0.0,
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"trades_today": 0, "wins": 0, "win_rate": 0.0, "status": "idle",
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"position": 0.0, "entry_price": 0.0, "fee_paid": 0.0,
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"signals": [], "type": "stat_arb", "size": 0.05, "fee_model": "taker",
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"signals": [], "type": "stat_arb", "size":0.027500, "fee_model": "taker",
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"description": "BTC/ETH spread mean reversion — trades when Z-score exceeds 1.5 sigma. Pairs converge back to equilibrium.",
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},
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"Avellaneda-Stoikov": {
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"allocation": 10000.0, "instrument": "BTC", "pnl": 0.0,
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"trades_today": 0, "wins": 0, "win_rate": 0.0, "status": "idle",
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"position": 0.0, "entry_price": 0.0, "fee_paid": 0.0,
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"signals": [], "type": "market_making", "size": 0.001, "fee_model": "maker",
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"signals": [], "type": "market_making", "size":0.000950, "fee_model": "maker",
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"description": "Dual-sided quoting at best bid/ask — captures spread via stochastic control. Simulated fill when spread is crossed.",
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},
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"Momentum Breakout": {
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"allocation": 10000.0, "instrument": "BTC", "pnl": 0.0,
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"trades_today": 0, "wins": 0, "win_rate": 0.0, "status": "idle",
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"position": 0.0, "entry_price": 0.0, "fee_paid": 0.0,
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"signals": [], "type": "momentum", "size": 0.002, "fee_model": "taker",
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"signals": [], "type": "momentum", "size":0.020000, "fee_model": "taker",
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"description": "Bollinger Band (2σ) breakout — enters when price breaks bands with volume confirmation.",
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},
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"Mean Reversion": {
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"allocation": 10000.0, "instrument": "BTC", "pnl": 0.0,
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"trades_today": 0, "wins": 0, "win_rate": 0.0, "status": "idle",
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"position": 0.0, "entry_price": 0.0, "fee_paid": 0.0,
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"signals": [], "type": "reversal", "size": 0.002, "fee_model": "taker",
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"signals": [], "type": "reversal", "size":0.022500, "fee_model": "taker",
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"description": "VWAP deviation — buys below VWAP, sells above. Oscillates around fair value.",
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},
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"Hawkes OFI (new)": {
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@@ -355,7 +355,7 @@ def simulate_fill(name: str, side: str, coin: str, price: float, reason: str = "
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trades_log.append({
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"time": datetime.now().strftime("%H:%M:%S"),
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"strategy": name, "side": "BUY (close short)",
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"size": abs(cfg["position"] if cfg["position"] < 0 else sz),
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"size":0.025000,
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"price": price, "pnl": round(close_pnl - fee - slippage, 4),
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"fee": round(fee, 4),
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})
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