hk-weather-mkt/dashboard.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""Quick test and display of HK weather forecasts with trading signals."""

import sys
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from weather.hk_extractor import HKExtractor
from weather.hko_client import HKOClient
from weather.openmeteo_client import OpenMeteoClient
from strategy.signals import SignalGenerator
from strategy.calibrator import ProbabilityCalibrator
from strategy.kelly import KellyCriterion


def main():
    print("╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗")
    print("║   HK Weather Prediction Market Dashboard            ║")
    print(f"║   {datetime.now():%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S} HKT                          ║")
    print("╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝")
    print()

    # Fetch data
    weather = HKExtractor()
    hko = HKOClient()

    print("─── Current Conditions ───────────────────────────────")
    current = hko.get_current_weather()
    if current:
        temps = current.get("temperature", [])
        for t in temps[:3]:
            print(f"  {t['place']:20s} {t['value']}°C")
        print(f"  Humidity: {current.get('humidity', [{}])[0].get('value', 'N/A')}%")
        warning = current.get("warning_message", "")
        if warning:
            print(f"  ⚠ {warning}")

    om = OpenMeteoClient()
    cur = om.get_current_conditions()
    if cur:
        print(f"  Feels like: {cur.get('apparent_temp', 'N/A')}°C")
        print(f"  Wind: {cur.get('wind_speed', 'N/A'):.1f} km/h")
        print(f"  Pressure: {cur.get('surface_pressure', 'N/A'):.1f} hPa")

    # Typhoon info
    typhoon = hko.get_typhoon_info()
    if typhoon:
        signal = hko.get_current_signal_level()
        print(f"  Typhoon signal: {'T' + str(signal) if signal else 'None'}")

    print()
    print("─── HKO 9-Day Forecast ───────────────────────────────")
    hko_fc = hko.get_forecast()
    if hko_fc:
        for day in hko_fc[:5]:
            print(f"  {day['date']} ({day['week']}): "
                  f"{day['forecast_temp_min']}-{day['forecast_temp_max']}°C, "
                  f"Wind: {day.get('forecast_wind', 'N/A')}")

    print()
    print("─── WeatherNext (Open-Meteo) Forecast ───────────────")
    fc = weather.get_hk_forecast(lead_days=5)
    wnext = fc.get("sources", {}).get("weathernext", [])
    for day in wnext[:5]:
        print(f"  {day['date']}: "
              f"↑{day['temp_max_calibrated']:.1f}°C ↓{day['temp_min_calibrated']:.1f}°C, "
              f"Rain: {day['precipitation_probability_calibrated']:.1f}% ({day['precipitation_sum']:.1f}mm), "
              f"Wind: {day['wind_speed_max_calibrated']:.1f} km/h")

    print()
    print("─── Trading Signals ──────────────────────────────────")
    sig_gen = SignalGenerator()
    sig_gen.generate_signals()
    print(sig_gen.get_signal_summary())

    # Also show market creation proposals
    print()
    print("─── Proposed Markets (for Polymarket) ────────────────")
    tomorrow = datetime.now() + timedelta(days=1)
    if wnext:
        d1 = wnext[0] if len(wnext) > 0 else {}
        rain_p = d1.get("precipitation_probability_calibrated", 50)
        temp_p = d1.get("temp_max_calibrated", 30)
        wind_p = d1.get("wind_speed_max_calibrated", 15)

        print(f"  1. 'Will it rain in HK on {tomorrow:%Y-%m-%d}?' [YES: ~{rain_p:.0f}%]")
        print(f"  2. 'Will HK temp exceed 33°C on {tomorrow:%Y-%m-%d}?' [YES: ~{min(95, max(5, 50 + (temp_p - 33) * 20)):.0f}%]")
        print(f"  3. 'Will HK temp exceed 35°C on {tomorrow:%Y-%m-%d}?' [YES: ~{min(95, max(5, 50 + (temp_p - 35) * 20)):.0f}%]")
        print(f"  4. 'Will rain exceed 10mm in HK on {tomorrow:%Y-%m-%d}?' [check hourly]")
        print(f"  5. 'Will a T8 signal be hoisted in HK in the next 7 days?'")

    print()
    print("─── Kelly Sizing Sim ─────────────────────────────────")
    kelly = KellyCriterion(bankroll_usdc=1000.0)
    for name, our_p, mkt_p in [
        ("Rain tomorrow", rain_p, 45),
        ("Temp > 35°C", min(95, max(5, 50 + (temp_p - 35) * 20)), 30),
    ]:
        r = kelly.size_bet(our_p, mkt_p, "buy_yes")
        if r.kelly_active:
            print(f"  {name}: Bet ${r.size_usdc:.2f} YES (edge={r.edge:.3f})")
        else:
            r2 = kelly.size_bet(our_p, mkt_p, "buy_no")
            if r2.kelly_active:
                print(f"  {name}: Bet ${r2.size_usdc:.2f} NO (edge={r2.edge:.3f})")
            else:
                print(f"  {name}: No edge (model={our_p:.0f}% vs market={mkt_p:.0f}%)")

    print()
    print("═" * 56)


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()