Tier 2 enhancements:
- SpatialWeatherClient: multi-station Open-Meteo fetcher for all HK locations
Extracts urban heat island delta, coastal-inland gradients, wind convergence,
precipitation spatial heterogeneity, composite instability index
- TyphoonModel: data-driven signal probability for T1/T3/T8/T10
Climatological base rates + conditional transition probabilities
Currently active T1 signal → 25% T3/24h, 10% T8/72h, 22% T8/120h
ENSO modulation, active storm proximity boost, month-specific seasonality
- ERA5 download/process pipeline via CDS API
Downloads hourly reanalysis for HK region, processes to daily training format
Output schema matches Open-Meteo for seamless feature compatibility
- PortfolioKelly: correlation-aware simultaneous Kelly sizing
Covariance matrix from historical outcome correlations
Prevents over-betting on correlated rain/temp/wind markets
Σ⁻¹ μ vector formulation, regularized inversion, independent fallback
- MLPredictor updated: integrates spatial + typhoon + portfolio Kelly
record_outcome feeds both calibration AND portfolio correlation matrix
ramseshk
03f9ea2129