Market creator (ml/create_markets.py):
- Generates Polymarket-compliant BinaryOption question specs
- Temperature threshold markets (30°C, 33°C, 35°C) per day
- Rain probability and heavy rain (10mm/25mm) markets per day
- Typhoon T8 weekly + monthly markets
- Wind gust threshold markets (>50 km/h at Chek Lap Kok)
- Calendar spread markets (rainy days per week)
- Resolution criteria tied to verifiable HKO public API sources
- Submission-ready JSON output with dispute windows + metadata
- Human-readable summary with probability bars + edge estimates
Web dashboard:
- /api/ml endpoint: per-model raw/calibrated probabilities
- ML Predictions card: color-coded, sorted by confidence
- Typhoon Probabilities card: T1/T3/T8 now + 72h/120h
- Auto-refreshes independently (avoids blocking chart refresh)
Usage:
python ml/create_markets.py # View proposals
python ml/create_markets.py --submit # JSON for Polymarket
ramseshk
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