7d7a67bd20
Tier 1 ML enhancements: - Feature engineering (37 features across 5 groups: thermal, dynamic, moisture, temporal, interaction) from NWP model output - 7 LightGBM probability models for rain/temp/wind thresholds - Temperature-scaled probabilities to prevent overconfidence on bootstrap data - MLPredictor: unified inference pipeline replacing heuristic sigmoids - Ensemble disagreement signals (composite spread → edge amplification) - Fixed calibration loop: update_calibration() now functional (EMA of errors) - record_outcome() wired for post-resolution feedback - Nautilus strategy updated: ML predictions take priority, heuristics as fallback - Historical backtest engine with Sharpe/ROI/max-DD simulation - Bootstrap training data generator from HK climate normals Run: python ml/train.py && python ml/backtest.py --edge 50
577 lines
23 KiB
Python
577 lines
23 KiB
Python
"""NautilusTrader strategy for HK weather prediction market trading.
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Integrates Open-Meteo + HKO weather forecasts with Polymarket CLOB execution.
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Flow:
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1. On start: discover weather markets on Polymarket via Gamma API
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2. Subscribe to L2 order book data for each discovered market
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3. Every forecast_interval: run weather model, generate signal
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4. On signal: compare model probability vs best bid/ask
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5. Place limit order at favorable price when edge > threshold
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6. On fill: track position, wait for resolution (0 or 1 payout)
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Instrument ID format: {condition_id}-{token_id}.POLYMARKET
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"""
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import asyncio
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import json
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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from typing import Optional, Dict, List
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import numpy as np
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import requests
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from nautilus_trader.cache.cache import Cache
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from nautilus_trader.common.component import Clock, LiveClock, MessageBus
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from nautilus_trader.config import StrategyConfig, ImportableStrategyConfig
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from nautilus_trader.core.uuid import UUID4
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from nautilus_trader.live.node import TradingNode
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from nautilus_trader.model.book import OrderBook
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from nautilus_trader.model.data import QuoteTick, TradeTick, OrderBookDeltas, OrderBookDepth10
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from nautilus_trader.model.enums import (
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OrderSide,
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OrderType,
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TimeInForce,
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PositionSide,
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TriggerType,
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)
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from nautilus_trader.model.events import OrderFilled
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from nautilus_trader.model.identifiers import (
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ClientId,
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InstrumentId,
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PositionId,
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StrategyId,
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TraderId,
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VenueOrderId,
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)
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from nautilus_trader.model.instruments import BinaryOption
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from nautilus_trader.model.objects import Price, Quantity, Money
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from nautilus_trader.model.orders import Order, LimitOrder, MarketOrder
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from nautilus_trader.model.position import Position
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from nautilus_trader.trading.strategy import Strategy
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from nautilus_trader.adapters.polymarket.common.constants import (
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POLYMARKET_VENUE,
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POLYMARKET_CLIENT_ID,
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POLYMARKET_MAX_PRICE,
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POLYMARKET_MIN_PRICE,
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)
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# FIXME: import from project package
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import sys
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sys.path.insert(0, "/home/satoshi/hk-weather-mkt")
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from weather.openmeteo_client import OpenMeteoClient
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from weather.hko_client import HKOClient
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from strategy.kelly import KellyCriterion
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GAMMA_API = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com"
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class PolymarketWeatherStrategyConfig(StrategyConfig):
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"""Configuration for the weather prediction market strategy."""
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engine_type: type = Strategy
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bankroll_pusd: float = 1000.0
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min_edge_bps: int = 200
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max_position_per_market_pusd: float = 500.0
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kelly_fraction: float = 0.25
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forecast_interval_mins: int = 360
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search_tags: tuple = (
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"weather", "temperature", "hong kong", "typhoon",
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"precipitation", "climate", "heat", "storm", "rain",
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)
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min_liquidity_usdc: float = 100.0
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class PolymarketWeatherStrategy(Strategy):
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"""Strategy that trades Polymarket weather outcome tokens using WeatherNext forecasts."""
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def __init__(self, config: PolymarketWeatherStrategyConfig):
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super().__init__(config)
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self.config = config
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self.bankroll = config.bankroll_pusd
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self.kelly = KellyCriterion(bankroll_usdc=config.bankroll_pusd, fraction=config.kelly_fraction)
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# State
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self._instruments: Dict[InstrumentId, BinaryOption] = {}
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self._markets: Dict[str, Dict] = {} # condition_id -> market info
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self._best_bid: Dict[InstrumentId, float] = {} # instrument_id -> best bid
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self._best_ask: Dict[InstrumentId, float] = {} # instrument_id -> best ask
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self._positions: Dict[InstrumentId, Position] = {}
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self._orders: Dict[str, Order] = {} # client_order_id -> order
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self._active_signals: Dict[str, float] = {} # condition_id -> model probability
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# Weather clients
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self._openmeteo: Optional[OpenMeteoClient] = None
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self._hko: Optional[HKOClient] = None
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self._ml_predictor = None # ML predictor (lazy-loaded)
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self._last_forecast: Optional[Dict] = None
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self._last_ml_probs: Optional[Dict] = None
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# Task handles
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self._forecast_task: Optional[asyncio.Task] = None
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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# Lifecycle #
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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async def on_start(self):
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"""Called when the strategy starts."""
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self.log.info("Starting PolymarketWeatherStrategy")
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self._openmeteo = OpenMeteoClient()
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self._hko = HKOClient()
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try:
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from ml import MLPredictor
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self._ml_predictor = MLPredictor(
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bankroll_usdc=self.config.bankroll_pusd,
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min_edge_bps=self.config.min_edge_bps,
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kelly_fraction=self.config.kelly_fraction,
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)
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self.log.info(f"ML predictor loaded: {len(self._ml_predictor.ensemble.models)} models")
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except Exception as e:
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self.log.warning(f"ML predictor not available: {e}")
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# Discover weather markets
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await self._discover_markets()
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if not self._instruments:
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self.log.warning("No weather markets found. Strategy will poll periodically.")
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# Start periodic forecast timer
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self._forecast_task = self.clock.loop.create_task(self._forecast_loop())
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self.log.info(f"Forecast loop started (every {self.config.forecast_interval_mins}m)")
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async def on_stop(self):
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"""Called when the strategy stops."""
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if self._forecast_task:
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self._forecast_task.cancel()
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try:
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await self._forecast_task
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except asyncio.CancelledError:
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pass
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await self.cancel_all_orders(self.POLYMARKET_VENUE)
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self.log.info("Strategy stopped")
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async def on_instrument(self, instrument: BinaryOption):
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"""Called when an instrument is loaded into the cache."""
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self._instruments[instrument.id] = instrument
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self.log.info(
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f"Instrument: {instrument.id} "
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f"tick={instrument.price_increment} "
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f"min_qty={instrument.min_quantity} "
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f"max_qty={instrument.max_quantity}"
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)
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async def on_disconnect(self):
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"""Called when connection drops."""
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self.log.warning("Disconnected from Polymarket. Reconnection in progress...")
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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# Market Data #
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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async def on_order_book_delta(self, deltas: OrderBookDeltas):
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"""Order book updates."""
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book = self.cache.order_book(deltas.instrument_id)
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if book:
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self._update_best_prices(book)
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async def on_order_book_depth10(self, depth: OrderBookDepth10):
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"""Depth-10 snapshot."""
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pass # Best prices already captured via deltas
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async def on_quote_tick(self, tick: QuoteTick):
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"""Quote updates."""
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pass
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async def on_trade_tick(self, tick: TradeTick):
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"""Trade execution updates."""
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pass
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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# Order Events #
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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async def on_order_filled(self, event: OrderFilled):
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"""Order fill notification."""
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order = event.to_order()
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self.log.info(
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f"FILLED {order.side} {order.quantity} @ {event.last_px} "
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f"[{order.instrument_id}] fee={event.commission}"
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)
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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# Signal Generation #
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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async def _discover_markets(self):
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"""Search Polymarket Gamma API for weather-related markets."""
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self.log.info("Discovering weather markets on Polymarket...")
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discovered: Dict[str, Dict] = {}
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for tag in self.config.search_tags:
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try:
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params = {
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"tag": tag,
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"active": "true",
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"closed": "false",
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"limit": 50,
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"order": "liquidity",
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}
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resp = requests.get(f"{GAMMA_API}/markets", params=params, timeout=15)
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resp.raise_for_status()
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for m in resp.json():
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cid = m.get("conditionId")
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if not cid or cid in discovered:
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continue
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liquidity = float(m.get("liquidity", 0))
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if liquidity < self.config.min_liquidity_usdc:
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continue
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discovered[cid] = {
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"condition_id": cid,
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"question": m.get("question", ""),
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"slug": m.get("slug", ""),
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"volume": float(m.get("volume", 0)),
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"liquidity": liquidity,
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"end_date": m.get("endDateIso", ""),
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"tag": tag,
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}
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except Exception as e:
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self.log.warning(f"Gamma API error for tag '{tag}': {e}")
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self._markets = discovered
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self.log.info(f"Found {len(discovered)} weather-related markets")
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# List top markets
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sorted_mkts = sorted(discovered.values(), key=lambda m: m["liquidity"], reverse=True)
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for m in sorted_mkts[:10]:
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self.log.info(
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f" [{m['liquidity']:.0f} USDC liq] {m['question'][:80]} "
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f"(tag={m['tag']})"
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)
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# Subscribe to order books for discovered markets
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# We need to load instruments first, then subscribe
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for m in sorted_mkts:
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try:
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instruments = await self._load_instruments_for_condition(m["condition_id"])
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for inst in instruments:
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self.subscribe_order_book_deltas(inst.id)
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self.log.info(f" Subscribed to {inst.id}")
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except Exception as e:
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self.log.warning(f" Failed to load instruments for {m['condition_id']}: {e}")
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async def _load_instruments_for_condition(self, condition_id: str) -> List:
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"""Load BinaryOption instruments for a Polymarket condition."""
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# We need to query the CLOB API for the market's tokens
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# The instrument provider handles this
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instruments = []
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try:
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clob_resp = requests.get(
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f"https://clob.polymarket.com/markets/{condition_id}",
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timeout=10,
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)
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clob_resp.raise_for_status()
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clob_data = clob_resp.json()
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tokens = clob_data.get("tokens", [])
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for token in tokens:
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token_id = token.get("token_id")
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if token_id:
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instrument = self.cache.instrument(
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InstrumentId.from_str(f"{condition_id}-{token_id}.POLYMARKET")
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)
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if instrument:
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instruments.append(instrument)
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except Exception as e:
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self.log.warning(f"Failed to load instruments for {condition_id}: {e}")
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return instruments
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async def _forecast_loop(self):
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"""Periodically run weather forecast and generate trading signals."""
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while True:
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try:
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await self._update_forecast()
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await self._generate_signals()
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except Exception as e:
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self.log.error(f"Forecast loop error: {e}")
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await asyncio.sleep(self.config.forecast_interval_mins * 60)
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async def _update_forecast(self):
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"""Fetch latest weather forecast data."""
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self.log.info("Updating weather forecast...")
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try:
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# Use ML predictor if available
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if self._ml_predictor and self._ml_predictor.models_loaded:
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self._ml_predictor.fetch_and_predict()
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self._last_ml_probs = self._ml_predictor._last_predictions
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self.log.info(f"ML forecast: {self._ml_predictor.summary()}")
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tomorrow = (datetime.now() + timedelta(days=1)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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self._last_forecast = self._openmeteo.get_scoring_window_summary(tomorrow)
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hko_fc = self._hko.get_forecast()
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if hko_fc:
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self._last_forecast["hko_tomorrow"] = hko_fc[0] if hko_fc else None
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typhoon = self._hko.get_typhoon_info()
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if typhoon:
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self._last_forecast["typhoon"] = typhoon
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current = self._hko.get_current_weather()
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if current:
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temps = current.get("temperature", [])
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self._last_forecast["current_temp"] = temps[0]["value"] if temps else None
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except Exception as e:
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self.log.error(f"Forecast fetch error: {e}")
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async def _generate_signals(self):
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"""Generate trading signals by comparing model forecast vs market prices."""
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if not self._last_forecast:
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self.log.warning("No forecast data available for signal generation")
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return
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for condition_id, market in self._markets.items():
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question = market["question"].lower()
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model_prob = self._compute_model_probability(question)
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if model_prob is None:
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continue
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self._active_signals[condition_id] = model_prob
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# Get current market price (mid of best bid/ask)
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yes_instrument_id = InstrumentId.from_str(f"{condition_id}-yes.POLYMARKET")
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no_instrument_id = InstrumentId.from_str(f"{condition_id}-no.POLYMARKET")
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# Determine which side to bet
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# The YES token is the one we buy if we think the event WILL happen
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mid_price = self._get_mid_price(yes_instrument_id)
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if mid_price is None:
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# Try NO token price as alternative
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mid_price_no = self._get_mid_price(no_instrument_id)
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if mid_price_no is not None:
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mid_price = 1.0 - mid_price_no # P(YES) = 1 - P(NO)
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if mid_price is None:
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continue
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market_prob = mid_price * 100.0 # Convert to percentage
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edge_bps = (model_prob - market_prob) * 100.0
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if abs(edge_bps) < self.config.min_edge_bps:
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continue
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# Kelly sizing
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side = "buy_yes" if edge_bps > 0 else "buy_no"
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kelly_result = self.kelly.size_bet(
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our_probability=model_prob,
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market_probability=market_prob,
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side=side,
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max_size=self.config.max_position_per_market_pusd,
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)
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if not kelly_result.kelly_active or kelly_result.size_usdc < 1.0:
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continue
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await self._place_weather_order(
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condition_id=condition_id,
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question=market["question"],
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side=side,
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kelly=kelly_result,
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model_prob=model_prob,
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market_prob=market_prob,
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edge_bps=edge_bps,
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)
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def _compute_model_probability(self, question: str) -> Optional[float]:
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"""Compute our model's probability for a given market question.
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Uses ML model predictions when available, falls back to heuristics.
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Also records resolved outcomes for calibration.
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"""
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# Try ML predictor first
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if self._ml_predictor and self._last_ml_probs:
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target = self._question_to_target(question)
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if target and target in self._last_ml_probs:
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return self._last_ml_probs[target]
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# Fallback heuristic
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if not self._last_forecast:
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return None
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return self._compute_heuristic_probability(question)
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@staticmethod
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def _question_to_target(question: str) -> Optional[str]:
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"""Map a Polymarket question to an ML model target."""
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q = question.lower()
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if "rain" in q or "precipitation" in q:
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if "10mm" in q or "10 mm" in q or "heavy" in q:
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return "rain_gt_10mm_24h"
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if "5mm" in q or "5 mm" in q:
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return "rain_gt_5mm_24h"
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return "rain_gt_0mm_24h"
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if "temperature" in q or "temp" in q:
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if "35" in q or "thirty five" in q:
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return "temp_gt_35c_24h"
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if "33" in q or "thirty three" in q:
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return "temp_gt_33c_24h"
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if "30" in q or "thirty" in q:
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return "temp_gt_30c_24h"
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return "temp_gt_30c_24h"
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if "wind" in q or "gust" in q:
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return "wind_gt_30kmh_24h"
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if "typhoon" in q or "t8" in q or "cyclone" in q:
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return None # No ML model for typhoon yet
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return None
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def _compute_heuristic_probability(self, question: str) -> Optional[float]:
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"""Fallback heuristic probability (legacy)."""
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if not self._last_forecast:
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return None
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question = question.lower()
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if "rain" in question or "precipitation" in question:
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return self._last_forecast.get("precipitation_probability_max", None)
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if "temperature" in question and "above" in question:
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tmax = self._last_forecast.get("temperature_2m_max", 30)
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if "30" in question or "thirty" in question:
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threshold = 30.0
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elif "35" in question or "thirty five" in question:
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threshold = 35.0
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elif "33" in question or "thirty three" in question:
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threshold = 33.0
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elif "40" in question or "forty" in question:
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threshold = 40.0
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else:
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return None
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return min(97.0, max(3.0, 50.0 + (tmax - threshold) * 20.0))
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if "typhoon" in question or "t8" in question or "tropical cyclone" in question:
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typhoon = self._last_forecast.get("typhoon", None)
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return 30.0 if typhoon else 5.0
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if "heat" in question or "hot" in question:
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tmax = self._last_forecast.get("temperature_2m_max", 30)
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return min(97.0, max(3.0, 50.0 + (tmax - 33.0) * 25.0))
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# Default: use rain probability for general weather questions
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return self._last_forecast.get("precipitation_probability_max", 50.0)
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def _get_mid_price(self, instrument_id: InstrumentId) -> Optional[float]:
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"""Get mid-price from order book."""
|
|
try:
|
|
book = self.cache.order_book(instrument_id)
|
|
if not book:
|
|
return None
|
|
|
|
if book.best_bid_price() and book.best_ask_price():
|
|
bid = book.best_bid_price().as_f64()
|
|
ask = book.best_ask_price().as_f64()
|
|
return (bid + ask) / 2.0
|
|
elif book.best_bid_price():
|
|
return book.best_bid_price().as_f64()
|
|
elif book.best_ask_price():
|
|
return book.best_ask_price().as_f64()
|
|
except Exception:
|
|
pass
|
|
return None
|
|
|
|
# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
|
|
# Order Placement #
|
|
# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
|
|
|
|
async def _place_weather_order(
|
|
self,
|
|
condition_id: str,
|
|
question: str,
|
|
side: str,
|
|
kelly: "KellyResult",
|
|
model_prob: float,
|
|
market_prob: float,
|
|
edge_bps: float,
|
|
):
|
|
"""Place a limit order on Polymarket based on weather signal."""
|
|
token_id = "yes" if side == "buy_yes" else "no"
|
|
instrument_id = InstrumentId.from_str(f"{condition_id}-{token_id}.POLYMARKET")
|
|
|
|
instrument = self.cache.instrument(instrument_id)
|
|
if not instrument:
|
|
self.log.warning(f"Instrument not in cache: {instrument_id}")
|
|
return
|
|
|
|
# Our limit price = model-implied fair value
|
|
# If we think YES prob is 65% and market at 50%, we bid 0.55 (midway)
|
|
our_price = model_prob / 100.0 if side == "buy_yes" else (100.0 - model_prob) / 100.0
|
|
# Use Kelly edge to set aggressive but fair price
|
|
# Buy at a price between market and our fair value
|
|
market_price = market_prob / 100.0 if side == "buy_yes" else (100.0 - market_prob) / 100.0
|
|
limit_price = (our_price + market_price) / 2.0
|
|
|
|
# Clamp to venue bounds
|
|
tick_size = instrument.price_increment
|
|
limit_price = max(
|
|
POLYMARKET_MIN_PRICE,
|
|
min(POLYMARKET_MAX_PRICE, limit_price),
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
# Round to tick size
|
|
limit_price = round(limit_price / tick_size) * tick_size
|
|
limit_price = max(tick_size, min(1.0 - tick_size, limit_price))
|
|
|
|
# Convert pUSD notional to share quantity
|
|
# shares = pUSD / price (for YES), pUSD / (1-price) (for NO)
|
|
if side == "buy_yes":
|
|
shares = kelly.size_usdc / max(limit_price, 0.0001)
|
|
else:
|
|
shares = kelly.size_usdc / max(1.0 - limit_price, 0.0001)
|
|
|
|
# Round shares to 2 decimal places (Polymarket precision)
|
|
shares = round(shares, 2)
|
|
if shares < 0.01:
|
|
self.log.info(f"Order too small: {shares} shares")
|
|
return
|
|
|
|
# Build limit order
|
|
price = Price(limit_price, instrument.price_precision)
|
|
qty = Quantity(shares, instrument.size_precision)
|
|
|
|
order = self.order_factory.limit(
|
|
instrument_id=instrument_id,
|
|
order_side=OrderSide.BUY if side == "buy_yes" else OrderSide.SELL,
|
|
quantity=qty,
|
|
price=price,
|
|
time_in_force=TimeInForce.GTC,
|
|
post_only=True, # Maker orders: no taker fees
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
self.submit_order(order, position_id=None)
|
|
|
|
self.log.info(
|
|
f"ORDER: {side.upper()} {shares} shares @ {limit_price:.4f} "
|
|
f"'{question[:60]}' "
|
|
f"(model={model_prob:.1f}%, mkt={market_prob:.1f}%, "
|
|
f"edge={'+' if edge_bps > 0 else ''}{edge_bps:.0f}bps)"
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
|
|
# Helpers #
|
|
# ------------------------------------------------------------------- #
|
|
|
|
def _update_best_prices(self, book: OrderBook):
|
|
"""Track best bid/ask from order book updates."""
|
|
if book.best_bid_price():
|
|
self._best_bid[book.instrument_id] = book.best_bid_price().as_f64()
|
|
if book.best_ask_price():
|
|
self._best_ask[book.instrument_id] = book.best_ask_price().as_f64()
|