HK Weather Prediction Market Pipeline: WeatherNext + HKO + Polymarket
- Open-Meteo WeatherNext API client for HK forecasts - HKO public data client (current conditions, 9-day forecast, typhoon warnings) - HK-specific weather extraction and calibration - Polymarket market scanning, price discovery, and market creation proposals - Trading strategy engine: edge detection, Kelly criterion sizing, probability calibration - End-to-end pipeline with dry-run mode and scheduled runner - Interactive dashboard with live HK weather + forecasts + trading signals Dependencies: Python 3.10+, openmeteo-requests, pandas No API keys needed for dry-run mode. Polymarket trading requires private key in .env.
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ramseshk
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"""Hong Kong Observatory data client.
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Fetches real-time weather observations, warnings, and forecasts from HKO.
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Uses public RSS/JSON feeds where available.
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"""
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import json
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from datetime import datetime
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from typing import Optional, List
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import requests
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class HKOClient:
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"""Fetch data from Hong Kong Observatory's public data feeds."""
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BASE_URL = "https://data.weather.gov.hk"
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ENDPOINTS = {
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"current_weather": f"{BASE_URL}/weatherAPI/opendata/weather.php?dataType=rhrread&lang=en",
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"9day_forecast": f"{BASE_URL}/weatherAPI/opendata/weather.php?dataType=fnd&lang=en",
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"warnings": f"{BASE_URL}/weatherAPI/opendata/weather.php?dataType=warnsum&lang=en",
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"local_forecast": f"{BASE_URL}/weatherAPI/opendata/weather.php?dataType=flw&lang=en",
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"swt": f"{BASE_URL}/weatherAPI/opendata/weather.php?dataType=swt&lang=en",
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"rainfall": f"{BASE_URL}/weatherAPI/opendata/weather.php?dataType=rfmap",
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"lightning": f"{BASE_URL}/weatherAPI/opendata/weather.php?dataType=lmap",
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"uv_index": f"{BASE_URL}/weatherAPI/opendata/weather.php?dataType=uvi",
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"earthquake": f"{BASE_URL}/weatherAPI/opendata/weather.php?dataType=eq",
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}
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def __init__(self):
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self.session = requests.Session()
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self.session.headers.update({
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"User-Agent": "HK-Weather-Market/1.0",
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"Accept": "application/json",
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})
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def get_current_weather(self) -> Optional[dict]:
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"""Get current weather observations for Hong Kong."""
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try:
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resp = self.session.get(self.ENDPOINTS["current_weather"], timeout=15)
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resp.raise_for_status()
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data = resp.json()
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result = {
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"update_time": data.get("updateTime", ""),
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"temperature": [],
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"humidity": [],
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"rainfall": [],
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"warning_message": data.get("warningMessage", ""),
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"rainstorm_reminder": data.get("rainstormReminder", ""),
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"mintemp_from00to09": data.get("mintempFrom00To09", ""),
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}
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# Parse temperature data
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for record in data.get("temperature", {}).get("data", []):
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result["temperature"].append({
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"place": record.get("place"),
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"value": record.get("value"),
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"unit": record.get("unit", "C"),
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})
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for record in data.get("humidity", {}).get("data", []):
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result["humidity"].append({
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"place": record.get("place"),
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"value": record.get("value"),
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"unit": record.get("unit", "%"),
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})
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# Parse rainfall
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for record in data.get("rainfall", {}).get("data", []):
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result["rainfall"].append({
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"place": record.get("place"),
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"max": record.get("max"),
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"min": record.get("min"),
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"unit": record.get("unit", "mm"),
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})
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return result
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"HKO current weather error: {e}")
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return None
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def get_forecast(self) -> Optional[List[dict]]:
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"""Get 9-day weather forecast from HKO."""
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try:
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resp = self.session.get(self.ENDPOINTS["9day_forecast"], timeout=15)
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resp.raise_for_status()
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data = resp.json()
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forecasts = []
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for day in data.get("weatherForecast", []):
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forecasts.append({
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"date": day.get("forecastDate"),
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"week": day.get("week"),
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"forecast_wind": day.get("forecastWind"),
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"forecast_weather": day.get("forecastWeather"),
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"forecast_temp_max": day.get("forecastMaxtemp", {}).get("value"),
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"forecast_temp_min": day.get("forecastMintemp", {}).get("value"),
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"forecast_humidity_max": day.get("forecastMaxrh", {}).get("value"),
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"forecast_humidity_min": day.get("forecastMinrh", {}).get("value"),
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"forecast_rain_probability": self._parse_probability(
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day.get("forecastRainProbability", {})
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),
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"psr": day.get("PSR"),
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})
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return forecasts
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"HKO forecast error: {e}")
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return None
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def get_warnings(self) -> Optional[dict]:
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"""Get current weather warnings and signals."""
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try:
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resp = self.session.get(self.ENDPOINTS["warnings"], timeout=15)
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resp.raise_for_status()
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return resp.json()
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"HKO warnings error: {e}")
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return None
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def get_typhoon_info(self) -> Optional[dict]:
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"""Get tropical cyclone warnings and tracks from HKO."""
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try:
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resp = self.session.get(self.ENDPOINTS["swt"], timeout=15)
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resp.raise_for_status()
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return resp.json()
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"HKO typhoon info error: {e}")
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return None
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def get_rainfall_map(self) -> Optional[dict]:
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"""Get recent rainfall distribution."""
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try:
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resp = self.session.get(self.ENDPOINTS["rainfall"], timeout=15)
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resp.raise_for_status()
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return resp.json()
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"HKO rainfall map error: {e}")
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return None
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def is_t8_active(self) -> bool:
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"""Check if T8 or higher typhoon signal is active."""
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warnings = self.get_warnings()
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if not warnings:
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return False
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for detail in warnings.get("details", []):
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name = detail.get("name", "")
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if any(signal in name for signal in ["8", "9", "10"]):
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if "tropical cyclone" in name.lower() or "typhoon" in name.lower():
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return True
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return False
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def get_current_signal_level(self) -> int:
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"""Get current typhoon signal level (0, 1, 3, 8, 9, 10)."""
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typhoon = self.get_typhoon_info()
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if not typhoon:
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return 0
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for signal_text in ["T1", "T3", "T8", "T9", "T10"]:
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if signal_text in str(typhoon):
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return int(signal_text[1:])
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return 0
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@staticmethod
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def _parse_probability(prob_data: dict) -> Optional[str]:
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"""Parse HKO rainfall probability data."""
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values = []
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for period in prob_data.get("probability", []):
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perc = period.get("value")
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if perc:
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values.append(perc)
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return " / ".join(values) if values else None
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