HK Weather Prediction Market Pipeline: WeatherNext + HKO + Polymarket
- Open-Meteo WeatherNext API client for HK forecasts - HKO public data client (current conditions, 9-day forecast, typhoon warnings) - HK-specific weather extraction and calibration - Polymarket market scanning, price discovery, and market creation proposals - Trading strategy engine: edge detection, Kelly criterion sizing, probability calibration - End-to-end pipeline with dry-run mode and scheduled runner - Interactive dashboard with live HK weather + forecasts + trading signals Dependencies: Python 3.10+, openmeteo-requests, pandas No API keys needed for dry-run mode. Polymarket trading requires private key in .env.
This commit is contained in:
ramseshk
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"""Signal generator for HK weather prediction market trading.
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Combines model forecasts, probability calibration, and Kelly sizing
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to generate trading signals for Polymarket execution.
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"""
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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from typing import Optional, Dict, List
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from weather.hk_extractor import HKExtractor
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from strategy.calibrator import ProbabilityCalibrator
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from strategy.kelly import KellyCriterion, KellyResult
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from markets.polymarket_client import PolymarketClient
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from markets.trader import TradeSignal
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from config import MIN_EDGE_BPS
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class SignalGenerator:
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"""Generate trading signals from weather forecasts and market prices."""
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def __init__(
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self,
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bankroll_usdc: float = 1000.0,
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min_edge_bps: float = MIN_EDGE_BPS,
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):
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self.weather = HKExtractor()
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self.polymarket = PolymarketClient()
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self.calibrator = ProbabilityCalibrator()
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self.kelly = KellyCriterion(bankroll_usdc=bankroll_usdc)
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self.min_edge_bps = min_edge_bps
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self.signals: List[TradeSignal] = []
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def generate_signals(self) -> List[TradeSignal]:
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"""Generate all trading signals for available markets."""
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self.signals = []
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markets = self.polymarket.find_relevant_weather_markets()
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if not markets:
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print("No relevant markets found on Polymarket")
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self._generate_standalone_signals()
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return self.signals
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for market in markets:
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signal = self._analyze_market(market)
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if signal:
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self.signals.append(signal)
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self.signals.sort(key=lambda s: abs(s.edge_bps), reverse=True)
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return self.signals
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def _analyze_market(self, market: Dict) -> Optional[TradeSignal]:
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"""Analyze a single market and generate a signal."""
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condition_id = market["condition_id"]
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question = market["question"].lower()
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if not market.get("active") or market.get("closed"):
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return None
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if market.get("liquidity", 0) < 50:
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return None # Too illiquid
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# Get market-implied probability
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market_prob = self.polymarket.get_market_implied_probability(condition_id, 0)
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if market_prob is None:
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return None
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# Determine what we're predicting
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model_prob, variable = self._get_model_probability(question)
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if model_prob is None:
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return None
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# Calibrate our probability
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cal_prob = self.calibrator.calibrate(variable, model_prob)
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# Calculate edge
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edge_bps = (cal_prob - market_prob) * 100 # Convert to basis points
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if abs(edge_bps) < self.min_edge_bps:
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return TradeSignal(
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market_id=market["id"],
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condition_id=condition_id,
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question=question,
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outcome_index=0,
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outcome_label=market["outcomes"][0] if market.get("outcomes") else "Yes",
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model_probability=cal_prob,
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market_probability=market_prob,
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edge_bps=edge_bps,
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recommended_size_usdc=0,
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max_size_usdc=0,
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signal_type="pass",
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)
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# Determine side
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side = "buy_yes" if edge_bps > 0 else "buy_no"
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side_prob = cal_prob if side == "buy_yes" else 100 - cal_prob
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# Kelly sizing
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kelly_result = self.kelly.size_bet(
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our_probability=cal_prob,
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market_probability=market_prob,
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side=side,
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)
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return TradeSignal(
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market_id=market["id"],
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condition_id=condition_id,
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question=question,
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outcome_index=0,
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outcome_label=market["outcomes"][0] if market.get("outcomes") else "Yes",
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model_probability=cal_prob,
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market_probability=market_prob,
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edge_bps=edge_bps,
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recommended_size_usdc=kelly_result.size_usdc,
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max_size_usdc=kelly_result.size_usdc,
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signal_type=side,
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)
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def _get_model_probability(self, question: str) -> tuple:
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"""Get our model's probability for a given market question."""
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question = question.lower()
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if "rain" in question or "precipitation" in question:
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prob = self.weather.should_bet_rain_tomorrow()
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return (prob, "rain") if prob is not None else (None, "")
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if "temperature" in question and ("above" in question or "exceed" in question):
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if "30" in question or "thirty" in question:
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prob = self.weather.should_bet_temp_above(30.0)
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elif "35" in question or "thirty five" in question:
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prob = self.weather.should_bet_temp_above(35.0)
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else:
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prob = self.weather.should_bet_temp_above(33.0)
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return (prob, "temperature") if prob is not None else (None, "")
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if "typhoon" in question or "t8" in question or "tropical cyclone" in question:
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forecast = self.weather.get_hk_forecast()
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typhoon = forecast.get("typhoon_info", {})
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prob = 30.0 if typhoon else 5.0
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return (prob, "typhoon")
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if "weather" in question or "storm" in question:
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forecast = self.weather.get_combined_tomorrow_forecast()
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tomorrow = forecast.get("tomorrow", {})
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if tomorrow:
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rain_prob = tomorrow.get("precipitation_probability_calibrated", 50)
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return (rain_prob, "rain")
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return (None, "")
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def _generate_standalone_signals(self):
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"""Generate signals even when no Polymarket markets exist.
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Useful for tracking model predictions and for creating new markets.
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"""
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tomorrow = datetime.now() + timedelta(days=1)
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forecast = self.weather.get_hk_forecast()
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consensus = forecast.get("consensus", {})
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tmrw = consensus.get("tomorrow", {})
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if tmrw:
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self.signals.append(TradeSignal(
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market_id="standalone",
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condition_id="standalone",
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question=f"Will it rain in Hong Kong on {tomorrow:%Y-%m-%d}?",
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outcome_index=0,
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outcome_label="Yes",
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model_probability=tmrw.get("precipitation_probability_calibrated", 50),
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market_probability=50.0,
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edge_bps=0,
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recommended_size_usdc=0,
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max_size_usdc=0,
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signal_type="pass",
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))
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print(f"\nGenerated {len(self.signals)} standalone signals")
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for s in self.signals:
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print(f" {s.question} -> P={s.model_probability:.1f}%")
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def get_signal_summary(self) -> str:
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"""Get a human-readable summary of current signals."""
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if not self.signals:
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return "No signals generated."
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lines = []
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active = [s for s in self.signals if s.signal_type != "pass"]
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passed = [s for s in self.signals if s.signal_type == "pass"]
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lines.append(f"\n=== Signal Summary ({datetime.now():%Y-%m-%d %H:%M}) ===")
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lines.append(f"Active signals: {len(active)}")
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lines.append(f"Passed (no edge): {len(passed)}")
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lines.append("")
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if active:
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lines.append("TRADE SIGNALS:")
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for s in active:
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lines.append(f" [{s.signal_type.upper()}] {s.question}")
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lines.append(f" Model: {s.model_probability:.1f}% | Market: {s.market_probability:.1f}%")
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lines.append(f" Edge: {s.edge_bps:.0f}bps | Size: ${s.recommended_size_usdc:.2f}")
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if passed:
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lines.append("PASSED (edge < threshold):")
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for s in passed[:5]: # Limit to 5
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lines.append(f" {s.question} (edge: {s.edge_bps:.0f}bps)")
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return "\n".join(lines)
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