Add ML dashboard panel, paper trader, time decay model

- /api/ml endpoint: per-model raw vs calibrated, typhoon, spatial features - ML Predictions card in web dashboard (color-coded, sorted by confidence) - Typhoon Probabilities card (T1/T3/T8 now/72h/120h) - PaperTrader: simulated trading with portfolio Kelly, P&L tracking, trade history persistence, auto-resolution after 24h - TimeDecayModel: theta decay for binary options sigma(t) = sigma_0 * (T-t)^beta (beta=0.4 for weather) Fair price convergence from 50%→model_prob as expiry approaches - Paper trader CLI: --track (monitor), --report, --simulate-days Run dashboard: python web_dashboard.py # see ML panel Run paper: python ml/paper_trader.py --simulate-days 30
2026-08-11 11:15:43 +08:00
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