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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/as_mm_BTC_1h_720_20260810-082844.json
T
ramseshk ad4036713e feat: recent-window backtests (week/month/year) — 207 clean results 
Archived 639 old full-history results. Re-ran sweep on time-windowed
bar limits matching practical trading horizons:

  Last week bars:  1h=168, 4h=42,  1d=7
  Last month bars: 1h=720, 4h=180, 1d=30
  Last year bars:  1h=5000, 4h=2190, 1d=365

270/270 sweep succeeded, 63 zero-trade files archived.
207 results with real trades remain.

Key findings on RECENT (year) data only:

  grid_mm:    S=13.8 (1h), S=9.3 (4h), S=8.1 (1d)
  as_mm:      S=14.8 (1h), S=8.0 (4h), S=3.3 (1d)
  composite:  S=3.2 (1h), S=2.3 (4h), S=0.7 (1d)
  mean_rev:   1d only viable (S=3.5)

  Directional strategies (momentum, obi, iceberg, hurst_vpin)
  all show near-zero or negative Sharpe on recent data.

  Market-making dominates in sideways crypto markets.

Added --window flag to sweep_runner for week/month/year presets
2026-08-10 16:35:25 +08:00

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Raw Blame History

{"strategy": "as_mm", "interval": "1h", "n_bars": 721, "start_equity": 10000.0, "end_equity": 8383.36, "total_return_pct": -16.17, "pnl": -1616.64, "sharpe": -10.722, "sortino": -14.993, "max_drawdown_pct": 17.63, "win_rate": 0.407, "profit_factor": 0.402, "expectancy": -14.969, "trades": [{"time": "2026-07-12 07:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.15667, "entry_px": 63818.75, "exit_px": 63819.12, "pnl_gross": -2.9428, "pnl_net": -5.9424, "fee": 2.999554, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.029, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-12 11:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.156301, "entry_px": 63950.89, "exit_px": 63962.97, "pnl_gross": -1.1099, "pnl_net": -4.1089, "fee": 2.99896, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.011, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-12 19:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.155516, "entry_px": 64266.2, "exit_px": 64175.76, "pnl_gross": -17.0614, "pnl_net": -20.0577, "fee": 2.996217, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.171, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-13 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.156009, "entry_px": 63953.89, "exit_px": 63993.94, "pnl_gross": 3.2543, "pnl_net": 0.2602, "fee": 2.994152, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.033, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-13 07:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.158741, "entry_px": 62873.81, "exit_px": 62940.0, "pnl_gross": 7.5107, "pnl_net": 4.5149, "fee": 2.995772, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.075, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-13 15:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.158699, "entry_px": 62937.87, "exit_px": 62572.36, "pnl_gross": -60.9937, "pnl_net": -63.9814, "fee": 2.987752, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.611, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-13 19:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.159886, "entry_px": 62089.03, "exit_px": 62224.71, "pnl_gross": 18.7129, "pnl_net": 15.7315, "fee": 2.981404, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.189, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-13 23:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.160498, "entry_px": 61968.91, "exit_px": 62268.67, "pnl_gross": 45.1202, "pnl_net": 42.1292, "fee": 2.990982, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.454, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-14 04:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.159625, "entry_px": 62590.53, "exit_px": 62671.27, "pnl_gross": 9.8885, "pnl_net": 6.8893, "fee": 2.999237, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.099, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-14 08:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.159762, "entry_px": 62598.54, "exit_px": 62625.31, "pnl_gross": 1.2769, "pnl_net": -1.724, "fee": 3.000902, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.013, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-14 12:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.159027, "entry_px": 62895.83, "exit_px": 63863.07, "pnl_gross": 150.7939, "pnl_net": 147.7701, "fee": 3.023713, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 1.508, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-14 20:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.156701, "entry_px": 64791.73, "exit_px": 64499.44, "pnl_gross": -48.8413, "pnl_net": -51.8803, "fee": 3.039008, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.481, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-15 04:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.155292, "entry_px": 65065.0, "exit_px": 64685.25, "pnl_gross": -61.9946, "pnl_net": -65.017, "fee": 3.022376, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.614, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-15 08:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.155406, "entry_px": 64618.55, "exit_px": 64699.24, "pnl_gross": 9.5239, "pnl_net": 6.5094, "fee": 3.014514, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.095, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-15 12:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.155133, "entry_px": 64793.73, "exit_px": 65091.84, "pnl_gross": 43.2248, "pnl_net": 40.2024, "fee": 3.022431, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.43, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-15 20:00:00", "side": 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