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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/hurst_vpin_BTC_4h_365_20260810-082808.json
T
ramseshk ad4036713e feat: recent-window backtests (week/month/year) — 207 clean results 
Archived 639 old full-history results. Re-ran sweep on time-windowed
bar limits matching practical trading horizons:

  Last week bars:  1h=168, 4h=42,  1d=7
  Last month bars: 1h=720, 4h=180, 1d=30
  Last year bars:  1h=5000, 4h=2190, 1d=365

270/270 sweep succeeded, 63 zero-trade files archived.
207 results with real trades remain.

Key findings on RECENT (year) data only:

  grid_mm:    S=13.8 (1h), S=9.3 (4h), S=8.1 (1d)
  as_mm:      S=14.8 (1h), S=8.0 (4h), S=3.3 (1d)
  composite:  S=3.2 (1h), S=2.3 (4h), S=0.7 (1d)
  mean_rev:   1d only viable (S=3.5)

  Directional strategies (momentum, obi, iceberg, hurst_vpin)
  all show near-zero or negative Sharpe on recent data.

  Market-making dominates in sideways crypto markets.

Added --window flag to sweep_runner for week/month/year presets
2026-08-10 16:35:25 +08:00

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{"strategy": "hurst_vpin", "interval": "4h", "n_bars": 366, "start_equity": 10000.0, "end_equity": 10872.57, "total_return_pct": 8.73, "pnl": 872.57, "sharpe": 1.905, "sortino": 2.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 6.21, "win_rate": NaN, "profit_factor": NaN, "expectancy": NaN, "trades": [{"time": "2026-08-10 08:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.166584, "entry_px": 60002.94, "exit_px": 65268.0, "pnl_gross": 872.5738, "pnl_net": 863.1831, "fee": 9.39066, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 8.73, "duration": ""}], "params": {"hurst_entry": 0.55, "hurst_exit": 0.45, "vpin_threshold": 0.25, "vpin_window": 50, "hurst_window": 64, "type": "Directional"}, "fee_info": {"entry_fee": 0.045, "exit_fee": 0.045, "total_fee": 0.09, "taker_rate_pct": 0.045, "maker_rate_pct": 0.015, "effective_rate_pct": 0.045, "vip_tier": 0, "staking_tier": "none", "fee_model": "taker", "tier_name": "Tier 0 (<$5M)", "staking_name": "No Stake"}, "equity_curve": [{"t": "2026-06-10T12:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, 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