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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/historical/pairs_BTC_20260804-072903.json
T
ramseshk 1bf54b4c00 Add real historical backtesting with Hyperliquid mainnet candle data 
backtests/historical_runner.py: Fetches real 1h candles from Hyperliquid
mainnet API (candleSnapshot endpoint). Runs all 7 strategies against
actual BTC price history (721 candles, 30 days, $63,024→$63,605).
Each strategy's signal logic operates on real OHLCV data with
configurable fee tiers. Saves to backtests/results/historical/.

Results on 30d BTC data at VIP0:
  Mean Reversion: +93.87% net (Sharpe 0.94)
  Order Book Imbalance: +54.31% net (Sharpe 1.03)
  Avellaneda-Stoikov: -1.02% net (Sharpe -0.13)
  Iceberg Detection: -33.20% net
  Momentum Breakout: -54.72% net

Server: Added /api/backtests/historical (list) and
/api/backtest/historical/{name} (full data) endpoints.

Dashboard: Added "Historical" tab with "Real Data" badge. Cards show
coin + mainnet source. Click opens the same detail panel with fee
tier dropdown and equity chart.
2026-08-04 07:29:51 +00:00

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"strategy": "Pairs Trading",
"strategy_key": "pairs",
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"end_time": "2026-08-04T07:00:00",
"start_equity": 100.0,
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"pnl": -80.1914,
"pnl_pct": -80.19,
"pnl_gross": -52.206,
"pnl_gross_pct": -52.21,
"fees_total": 27.9854,
"fee_tier": 0,
"staking_tier": "none",
"fee_model": "taker",
"sharpe": -0.7099,
"sortino": -0.5087,
"max_dd": 1.8268,
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"win_rate": 0.0,
"total_trades": 12,
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"t": "2026-08-03T08:00:00",
"v": 59.3519
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T09:00:00",
"v": 48.7679
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T10:00:00",
"v": 52.0799
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T11:00:00",
"v": 58.7759
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T12:00:00",
"v": 53.6279
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T13:00:00",
"v": 29.4179
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T14:00:00",
"v": 3.8726
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T15:00:00",
"v": 17.2646
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T16:00:00",
"v": 13.2326
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T17:00:00",
"v": 7.0406
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T18:00:00",
"v": 8.7206
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T19:00:00",
"v": 9.0566
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T20:00:00",
"v": 12.4646
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T21:00:00",
"v": 22.1126
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T22:00:00",
"v": 21.2006
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T23:00:00",
"v": 25.3766
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T00:00:00",
"v": 32.7206
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T01:00:00",
"v": 9.4886
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T02:00:00",
"v": 10.6406
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T03:00:00",
"v": 11.6966
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T04:00:00",
"v": 0.6566
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T05:00:00",
"v": 11.6966
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T06:00:00",
"v": 17.9366
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T07:00:00",
"v": 19.8086
}
],
"trades": [
{
"time": "2026-07-11 11:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 0.05999999999999999,
"price": 64191.0,
"pnl_gross": -73.062,
"pnl_net": -73.4086,
"fee": 0.346631,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.6 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-11 15:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.006,
"price": 64175.0,
"pnl_gross": -0.096,
"pnl_net": -0.4425,
"fee": 0.346545,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=3.8 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-18 06:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 0.12600000000000003,
"price": 63970.0,
"pnl_gross": -5.742,
"pnl_net": -6.0874,
"fee": 0.345438,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.6 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-18 16:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.018000000000000002,
"price": 64277.0,
"pnl_gross": 5.25,
"pnl_net": 4.9029,
"fee": 0.347096,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=1.6 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-19 01:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 0.024,
"price": 64757.0,
"pnl_gross": -5.106,
"pnl_net": -5.4557,
"fee": 0.349688,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.5 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-19 02:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.006,
"price": 64814.0,
"pnl_gross": 0.342,
"pnl_net": -0.008,
"fee": 0.349996,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=1.6 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-24 23:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 0.05999999999999999,
"price": 64123.0,
"pnl_gross": 45.282,
"pnl_net": 44.9357,
"fee": 0.346264,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.7 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-26 12:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.012,
"price": 64438.0,
"pnl_gross": 4.614,
"pnl_net": 4.266,
"fee": 0.347965,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=1.8 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-30 10:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 0.09600000000000002,
"price": 64553.0,
"pnl_gross": -13.38,
"pnl_net": -13.7286,
"fee": 0.348586,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.7 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-31 01:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.006,
"price": 64530.0,
"pnl_gross": -0.138,
"pnl_net": -0.4865,
"fee": 0.348462,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=4.2 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
},
{
"time": "2026-08-01 01:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 0.018000000000000002,
"price": 62940.0,
"pnl_gross": 9.822,
"pnl_net": 9.4821,
"fee": 0.339876,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.6 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-08-01 17:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.006,
"price": 62675.0,
"pnl_gross": -1.59,
"pnl_net": -1.9284,
"fee": 0.338445,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=3.6 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
}
],
"num_periods": 721,
"data_source": "Hyperliquid Mainnet",
"generated_at": "2026-08-04T07:29:03.649657"
}
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