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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/pairs_BTC_1h_720_20260810-082547.json
T
ramseshk ad4036713e feat: recent-window backtests (week/month/year) — 207 clean results 
Archived 639 old full-history results. Re-ran sweep on time-windowed
bar limits matching practical trading horizons:

  Last week bars:  1h=168, 4h=42,  1d=7
  Last month bars: 1h=720, 4h=180, 1d=30
  Last year bars:  1h=5000, 4h=2190, 1d=365

270/270 sweep succeeded, 63 zero-trade files archived.
207 results with real trades remain.

Key findings on RECENT (year) data only:

  grid_mm:    S=13.8 (1h), S=9.3 (4h), S=8.1 (1d)
  as_mm:      S=14.8 (1h), S=8.0 (4h), S=3.3 (1d)
  composite:  S=3.2 (1h), S=2.3 (4h), S=0.7 (1d)
  mean_rev:   1d only viable (S=3.5)

  Directional strategies (momentum, obi, iceberg, hurst_vpin)
  all show near-zero or negative Sharpe on recent data.

  Market-making dominates in sideways crypto markets.

Added --window flag to sweep_runner for week/month/year presets
2026-08-10 16:35:25 +08:00

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{"strategy": "pairs", "interval": "1h", "n_bars": 721, "start_equity": 10000.0, "end_equity": 9533.24, "total_return_pct": -4.67, "pnl": -466.76, "sharpe": -3.727, "sortino": -5.564, "max_drawdown_pct": 5.16, "win_rate": 0.286, "profit_factor": 0.464, "expectancy": -22.227, "trades": [{"time": "2026-07-12 23:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.155618, "entry_px": 64231.17, "exit_px": 63716.22, "pnl_gross": -89.0947, "pnl_net": -98.0546, "fee": 8.959913, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.891, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-13 04:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.154494, "entry_px": 64122.06, "exit_px": 62622.32, "pnl_gross": -240.5122, "pnl_net": -249.3238, "fee": 8.811561, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -2.428, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-14 05:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.154403, "entry_px": 62602.54, "exit_px": 62654.28, "pnl_gross": -0.7137, "pnl_net": -9.4168, "fee": 8.703013, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.007, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-15 02:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.153819, "entry_px": 62835.77, "exit_px": 64428.51, "pnl_gross": 236.1836, "pnl_net": 227.3745, "fee": 8.809049, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 2.444, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-16 06:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.152814, "entry_px": 64793.73, "exit_px": 64694.24, "pnl_gross": -24.1076, "pnl_net": -33.012, "fee": 8.904409, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.243, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-16 09:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.153646, "entry_px": 64286.22, "exit_px": 64005.93, "pnl_gross": -51.9359, "pnl_net": -60.8061, "fee": 8.870209, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.526, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-19 17:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151723, "entry_px": 64758.69, "exit_px": 64471.46, "pnl_gross": -52.4027, "pnl_net": -61.2259, "fee": 8.823234, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.533, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-20 13:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.152491, "entry_px": 64089.02, "exit_px": 64262.67, "pnl_gross": 17.6722, "pnl_net": 8.8646, "fee": 8.807615, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.181, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-21 08:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150014, "entry_px": 65265.2, "exit_px": 66127.81, "pnl_gross": 120.533, "pnl_net": 111.6631, "fee": 8.869856, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 1.231, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-22 20:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150242, "entry_px": 65967.9, "exit_px": 65824.11, "pnl_gross": -30.5139, "pnl_net": -39.4243, "fee": 8.910313, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.308, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-24 22:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.154106, "entry_px": 64116.05, "exit_px": 64079.86, "pnl_gross": -14.4681, "pnl_net": -23.3582, "fee": 8.890092, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.146, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-27 15:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.153533, "entry_px": 64261.2, "exit_px": 64449.49, "pnl_gross": 20.0159, "pnl_net": 11.1233, "fee": 8.892602, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.203, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-29 02:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.154533, "entry_px": 63974.91, "exit_px": 63884.05, "pnl_gross": -22.9319, "pnl_net": -31.8232, "fee": 8.891293, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.232, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-31 21:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.157139, "entry_px": 62767.71, "exit_px": 62857.08, "pnl_gross": 5.1611, "pnl_net": -3.7222, "fee": 8.883249, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.052, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-01 19:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.15653, "entry_px": 63044.98, "exit_px": 62440.5, "pnl_gross": -103.4592, "pnl_net": -112.2982, "fee": 8.839009, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -1.048, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-03 01:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.153764, "entry_px": 63506.44, "exit_px": 63132.8, "pnl_gross": -66.2151, "pnl_net": -74.9777, "fee": 8.76265, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.678, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-04 14:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.15168, "entry_px": 63942.88, "exit_px": 64032.9, "pnl_gross": 4.9197, "pnl_net": -3.8154, "fee": 8.735115, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.051, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-06 03:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.149762, "entry_px": 64794.73, "exit_px": 64446.49, "pnl_gross": -60.8631, "pnl_net": -69.573, "fee": 8.709941, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.627, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-07 02:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.148837, "entry_px": 64788.72, "exit_px": 64298.64, "pnl_gross": -81.5887, "pnl_net": -90.2345, "fee": 8.645839, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.846, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-08 20:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.146994, "entry_px": 65045.98, "exit_px": 64979.96, "pnl_gross": -18.3063, "pnl_net": -26.9072, "fee": 8.600865, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.191, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-09 11:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.147073, "entry_px": 64886.82, "exit_px": 64849.09, "pnl_gross": -14.1362, "pnl_net": -22.7225, "fee": 8.586292, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.148, "duration": ""}], "params": {"z_entry": 1.5, "z_exit": 0.5, "lookback": 20, "type": "Stat Arb"}, "fee_info": {"entry_fee": 0.045, "exit_fee": 0.045, "total_fee": 0.09, "taker_rate_pct": 0.045, "maker_rate_pct": 0.015, "effective_rate_pct": 0.045, "vip_tier": 0, "staking_tier": "none", "fee_model": "taker", "tier_name": "Tier 0 (<$5M)", "staking_name": "No Stake"}, "equity_curve": [{"t": "2026-07-11T08:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-07-11T09:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-07-11T10:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": 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