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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/historical/pairs_BTC_20260804-072817.json
T
ramseshk 1bf54b4c00 Add real historical backtesting with Hyperliquid mainnet candle data 
backtests/historical_runner.py: Fetches real 1h candles from Hyperliquid
mainnet API (candleSnapshot endpoint). Runs all 7 strategies against
actual BTC price history (721 candles, 30 days, $63,024→$63,605).
Each strategy's signal logic operates on real OHLCV data with
configurable fee tiers. Saves to backtests/results/historical/.

Results on 30d BTC data at VIP0:
  Mean Reversion: +93.87% net (Sharpe 0.94)
  Order Book Imbalance: +54.31% net (Sharpe 1.03)
  Avellaneda-Stoikov: -1.02% net (Sharpe -0.13)
  Iceberg Detection: -33.20% net
  Momentum Breakout: -54.72% net

Server: Added /api/backtests/historical (list) and
/api/backtest/historical/{name} (full data) endpoints.

Dashboard: Added "Historical" tab with "Real Data" badge. Cards show
coin + mainnet source. Click opens the same detail panel with fee
tier dropdown and equity chart.
2026-08-04 07:29:51 +00:00

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"strategy": "Pairs Trading",
"strategy_key": "pairs",
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"allocation": 100.0,
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"end_time": "2026-08-04T07:00:00",
"start_equity": 100.0,
"end_equity": -567.0614,
"pnl": -667.0614,
"pnl_pct": -667.06,
"pnl_gross": -433.85,
"pnl_gross_pct": -433.85,
"fees_total": 233.2114,
"fee_tier": 0,
"staking_tier": "none",
"fee_model": "taker",
"sharpe": -0.0506,
"sortino": -0.0643,
"max_dd": 4.9464,
"max_dd_pct": 494.64,
"win_rate": 0.0,
"total_trades": 12,
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"t": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
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{
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"v": -524.4325
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"v": -472.1338
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T01:00:00",
"v": -442.1338
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T02:00:00",
"v": -421.7338
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T03:00:00",
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T04:00:00",
"v": -313.7338
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T05:00:00",
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T06:00:00",
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"v": -262.4338
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T08:00:00",
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T09:00:00",
"v": -326.9338
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{
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"v": -299.3338
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T11:00:00",
"v": -243.5338
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T12:00:00",
"v": -286.4338
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T13:00:00",
"v": -488.1841
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T14:00:00",
"v": -701.0614
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T15:00:00",
"v": -589.4614
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T16:00:00",
"v": -623.0614
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T17:00:00",
"v": -674.6614
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T18:00:00",
"v": -660.6614
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T19:00:00",
"v": -657.8614
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T20:00:00",
"v": -629.4614
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T21:00:00",
"v": -549.0614
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{
"t": "2026-08-03T22:00:00",
"v": -556.6614
},
{
"t": "2026-08-03T23:00:00",
"v": -521.8614
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T00:00:00",
"v": -460.6614
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T01:00:00",
"v": -654.2614
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T02:00:00",
"v": -644.6614
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T03:00:00",
"v": -635.8614
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T04:00:00",
"v": -727.8614
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{
"t": "2026-08-04T05:00:00",
"v": -635.8614
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T06:00:00",
"v": -583.8614
},
{
"t": "2026-08-04T07:00:00",
"v": -567.0614
}
],
"trades": [
{
"time": "2026-07-11 11:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 0.49999999999999994,
"price": 64191.0,
"pnl_gross": -608.85,
"pnl_net": -611.7386,
"fee": 2.888595,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.6 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-11 15:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.05,
"price": 64175.0,
"pnl_gross": -0.8,
"pnl_net": -3.6879,
"fee": 2.887875,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=3.8 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-18 06:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 1.0500000000000003,
"price": 63970.0,
"pnl_gross": -47.85,
"pnl_net": -50.7287,
"fee": 2.87865,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.6 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-18 16:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.15000000000000002,
"price": 64277.0,
"pnl_gross": 43.75,
"pnl_net": 40.8575,
"fee": 2.892465,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=1.6 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-19 01:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 0.2,
"price": 64757.0,
"pnl_gross": -42.55,
"pnl_net": -45.4641,
"fee": 2.914065,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.5 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-19 02:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.05,
"price": 64814.0,
"pnl_gross": 2.85,
"pnl_net": -0.0666,
"fee": 2.91663,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=1.6 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-24 23:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 0.49999999999999994,
"price": 64123.0,
"pnl_gross": 377.35,
"pnl_net": 374.4645,
"fee": 2.885535,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.7 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-26 12:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.1,
"price": 64438.0,
"pnl_gross": 38.45,
"pnl_net": 35.5503,
"fee": 2.89971,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=1.8 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-30 10:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 0.8000000000000002,
"price": 64553.0,
"pnl_gross": -111.5,
"pnl_net": -114.4049,
"fee": 2.904885,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.7 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-07-31 01:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.05,
"price": 64530.0,
"pnl_gross": -1.15,
"pnl_net": -4.0538,
"fee": 2.90385,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=4.2 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
},
{
"time": "2026-08-01 01:00",
"side": "BUY (close short)",
"size": 0.15000000000000002,
"price": 62940.0,
"pnl_gross": 81.85,
"pnl_net": 79.0177,
"fee": 2.8323,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=-1.6 (tight range \u2192 expansion buy)"
},
{
"time": "2026-08-01 17:00",
"side": "SELL (close long)",
"size": 0.05,
"price": 62675.0,
"pnl_gross": -13.25,
"pnl_net": -16.0704,
"fee": 2.820375,
"reason": "Pairs: range Z=3.6 (wide range \u2192 mean reversion sell)"
}
],
"num_periods": 721,
"data_source": "Hyperliquid Mainnet",
"generated_at": "2026-08-04T07:28:17.900143"
}
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