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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/mean_rev_BTC_1d_365_20260810-083434.json
T
ramseshk ad4036713e feat: recent-window backtests (week/month/year) — 207 clean results 
Archived 639 old full-history results. Re-ran sweep on time-windowed
bar limits matching practical trading horizons:

  Last week bars:  1h=168, 4h=42,  1d=7
  Last month bars: 1h=720, 4h=180, 1d=30
  Last year bars:  1h=5000, 4h=2190, 1d=365

270/270 sweep succeeded, 63 zero-trade files archived.
207 results with real trades remain.

Key findings on RECENT (year) data only:

  grid_mm:    S=13.8 (1h), S=9.3 (4h), S=8.1 (1d)
  as_mm:      S=14.8 (1h), S=8.0 (4h), S=3.3 (1d)
  composite:  S=3.2 (1h), S=2.3 (4h), S=0.7 (1d)
  mean_rev:   1d only viable (S=3.5)

  Directional strategies (momentum, obi, iceberg, hurst_vpin)
  all show near-zero or negative Sharpe on recent data.

  Market-making dominates in sideways crypto markets.

Added --window flag to sweep_runner for week/month/year presets
2026-08-10 16:35:25 +08:00

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{"strategy": "mean_rev", "interval": "1d", "n_bars": 366, "start_equity": 10000.0, "end_equity": 6315.24, "total_return_pct": -36.85, "pnl": -3684.76, "sharpe": -1.006, "sortino": -1.331, "max_drawdown_pct": 43.27, "win_rate": 0.524, "profit_factor": 0.358, "expectancy": -175.029, "trades": [{"time": "2025-09-07 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.092177, "entry_px": 108438.33, "exit_px": 110990.9, "pnl_gross": 226.1858, "pnl_net": 217.084, "fee": 9.101848, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 2.263, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-09-29 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.08961, "entry_px": 114067.95, "exit_px": 114159.73, "pnl_gross": -0.9795, "pnl_net": -10.1826, "fee": 9.203167, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.01, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-10-12 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.086111, "entry_px": 118690.57, "exit_px": 114825.06, "pnl_gross": -341.9133, "pnl_net": -350.962, "fee": 9.048719, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -3.345, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-10-25 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.089127, "entry_px": 110840.73, "exit_px": 111571.32, "pnl_gross": 56.1944, "pnl_net": 47.2741, "fee": 8.920313, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.569, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-12-02 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.09317, "entry_px": 106633.53, "exit_px": 91145.76, "pnl_gross": -1451.2829, "pnl_net": -1459.5751, "fee": 8.292193, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -14.608, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-12-12 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.091479, "entry_px": 92746.65, "exit_px": 90137.77, "pnl_gross": -246.1869, "pnl_net": -253.7154, "fee": 7.528538, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -2.902, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-12-30 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.093388, "entry_px": 88216.13, "exit_px": 88377.53, "pnl_gross": 7.6521, "pnl_net": 0.2308, "fee": 7.421278, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, 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-0.26, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-03-23 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.09949, "entry_px": 67898.83, "exit_px": 70789.14, "pnl_gross": 281.3467, "pnl_net": 275.1376, "fee": 6.20913, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 4.165, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-04-05 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.105871, "entry_px": 66462.4, "exit_px": 68919.01, "pnl_gross": 253.6349, "pnl_net": 247.1851, "fee": 6.449834, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 3.605, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-04-29 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.101262, "entry_px": 71990.92, "exit_px": 75651.27, "pnl_gross": 363.9284, "pnl_net": 357.2006, "fee": 6.727745, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 4.992, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-05-13 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.09779, "entry_px": 78267.19, "exit_px": 79203.72, "pnl_gross": 84.6534, "pnl_net": 77.7238, "fee": 6.929586, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 1.106, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-06-14 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.100419, "entry_px": 77060.98, "exit_px": 65654.28, "pnl_gross": -1151.8936, "pnl_net": -1158.3427, "fee": 6.449096, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -14.886, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-03 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.107792, "entry_px": 61108.05, "exit_px": 62513.42, "pnl_gross": 145.4923, "pnl_net": 139.4959, "fee": 5.996432, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 2.209, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-08 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.105, "entry_px": 64118.05, "exit_px": 62220.72, "pnl_gross": -205.1901, "pnl_net": -211.1596, "fee": 5.969507, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -3.048, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-13 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.101641, "entry_px": 64219.15, "exit_px": 62268.67, "pnl_gross": -204.0349, "pnl_net": -209.8202, "fee": 5.785357, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -3.126, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-24 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.097185, "entry_px": 65065.0, "exit_px": 64058.88, "pnl_gross": -103.4274, "pnl_net": -109.0744, "fee": 5.647007, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -1.636, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-04 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.098857, "entry_px": 62918.86, "exit_px": 64003.93, "pnl_gross": 101.6213, "pnl_net": 95.9751, "fee": 5.646243, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 1.634, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-10 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.096781, "entry_px": 65318.25, "exit_px": 65253.0, "pnl_gross": -9.1599, "pnl_net": -14.8465, "fee": 5.686567, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.145, "duration": ""}], "params": {"vwap_window": 20, "deviation": 1.0, "type": "Reversal"}, "fee_info": {"entry_fee": 0.045, "exit_fee": 0.045, "total_fee": 0.09, "taker_rate_pct": 0.045, "maker_rate_pct": 0.015, "effective_rate_pct": 0.045, "vip_tier": 0, "staking_tier": "none", 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