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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/grid_mm_BTC_1h_365_20260810-083027.json
T
ramseshk ad4036713e feat: recent-window backtests (week/month/year) — 207 clean results 
Archived 639 old full-history results. Re-ran sweep on time-windowed
bar limits matching practical trading horizons:

  Last week bars:  1h=168, 4h=42,  1d=7
  Last month bars: 1h=720, 4h=180, 1d=30
  Last year bars:  1h=5000, 4h=2190, 1d=365

270/270 sweep succeeded, 63 zero-trade files archived.
207 results with real trades remain.

Key findings on RECENT (year) data only:

  grid_mm:    S=13.8 (1h), S=9.3 (4h), S=8.1 (1d)
  as_mm:      S=14.8 (1h), S=8.0 (4h), S=3.3 (1d)
  composite:  S=3.2 (1h), S=2.3 (4h), S=0.7 (1d)
  mean_rev:   1d only viable (S=3.5)

  Directional strategies (momentum, obi, iceberg, hurst_vpin)
  all show near-zero or negative Sharpe on recent data.

  Market-making dominates in sideways crypto markets.

Added --window flag to sweep_runner for week/month/year presets
2026-08-10 16:35:25 +08:00

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{"strategy": "grid_mm", "interval": "1h", "n_bars": 366, "start_equity": 10000.0, "end_equity": 9534.19, "total_return_pct": -4.66, "pnl": -465.81, "sharpe": -4.21, "sortino": -5.843, "max_drawdown_pct": 5.95, "win_rate": 0.217, "profit_factor": 0.384, "expectancy": -20.418, "trades": [{"time": "2026-07-26 09:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.154858, "entry_px": 64565.5, "exit_px": 64443.49, "pnl_gross": -21.8908, "pnl_net": -24.8875, "fee": 2.996711, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.219, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-26 19:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.15467, "entry_px": 64502.44, "exit_px": 64604.33, "pnl_gross": 12.7645, "pnl_net": 9.7691, "fee": 2.995342, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.128, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-30 10:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.153958, "entry_px": 64883.82, "exit_px": 64488.45, "pnl_gross": -63.8583, "pnl_net": -66.846, "fee": 2.987684, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.639, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-01 01:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.153144, "entry_px": 64811.75, "exit_px": 62877.06, "pnl_gross": -299.2188, "pnl_net": -302.152, "fee": 2.933216, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -3.015, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-01 07:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.152545, "entry_px": 63105.04, "exit_px": 62954.98, "pnl_gross": -25.7754, "pnl_net": -28.6598, "fee": 2.884474, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.268, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-01 11:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151989, "entry_px": 63166.1, "exit_px": 62982.95, "pnl_gross": -30.7127, "pnl_net": -33.5887, "fee": 2.87599, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.32, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-01 22:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151794, "entry_px": 63044.98, "exit_px": 62741.2, "pnl_gross": -48.977, "pnl_net": -51.8411, "fee": 2.864038, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.512, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-02 07:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151429, "entry_px": 62873.81, "exit_px": 63403.53, "pnl_gross": 77.3468, "pnl_net": 74.4785, "fee": 2.868308, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.812, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-05 09:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151803, "entry_px": 63228.16, "exit_px": 64062.87, "pnl_gross": 123.8129, "pnl_net": 120.9144, "fee": 2.898474, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 1.29, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-06 03:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151679, "entry_px": 64096.03, "exit_px": 64446.49, "pnl_gross": 50.2324, "pnl_net": 47.3079, "fee": 2.92458, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.517, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-06 10:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150882, "entry_px": 64767.7, "exit_px": 64524.41, "pnl_gross": -39.6345, "pnl_net": -42.5606, "fee": 2.926178, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.406, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-07 20:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150514, "entry_px": 64662.6, "exit_px": 64875.06, "pnl_gross": 29.0539, "pnl_net": 26.1293, "fee": 2.924585, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.299, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-07 22:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150298, "entry_px": 64948.88, "exit_px": 64787.15, "pnl_gross": -27.2334, "pnl_net": -30.1583, "fee": 2.92486, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.279, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-08 01:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.149869, "entry_px": 64952.89, "exit_px": 64820.11, "pnl_gross": -22.816, "pnl_net": -25.7333, "fee": 2.917342, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.234, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-08 05:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.149265, "entry_px": 65063.0, "exit_px": 64902.03, "pnl_gross": -26.9363, "pnl_net": -29.8462, "fee": 2.909885, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.277, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-08 10:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.148941, "entry_px": 65023.96, "exit_px": 64916.02, "pnl_gross": -18.9796, "pnl_net": -21.8827, "fee": 2.903009, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.196, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-08 13:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.148624, "entry_px": 65034.97, "exit_px": 64923.01, "pnl_gross": -19.5368, "pnl_net": -22.434, "fee": 2.897231, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.202, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-08 16:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.14802, "entry_px": 65168.1, "exit_px": 64996.94, "pnl_gross": -28.2259, "pnl_net": -31.116, "fee": 2.890054, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.293, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-08 20:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.147789, "entry_px": 65079.01, "exit_px": 64979.96, "pnl_gross": -17.523, "pnl_net": -20.4062, "fee": 2.883193, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.182, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-08 23:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.147752, "entry_px": 64976.91, "exit_px": 64868.07, "pnl_gross": -18.9598, "pnl_net": -21.8375, "fee": 2.877728, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.197, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-09 02:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.147628, "entry_px": 64902.84, "exit_px": 64730.21, "pnl_gross": -28.3561, "pnl_net": -31.2268, "fee": 2.87062, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.296, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-09 11:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.147303, "entry_px": 64853.79, "exit_px": 64849.09, "pnl_gross": -3.5586, "pnl_net": -6.4244, "fee": 2.865843, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.037, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-09 15:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.14634, "entry_px": 65256.19, "exit_px": 65134.8, "pnl_gross": -20.6266, "pnl_net": -23.4888, "fee": 2.862213, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.216, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-10 08:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.146062, "entry_px": 65239.17, "exit_px": 65275.0, "pnl_gross": 3.8035, "pnl_net": 0.944, "fee": 2.859474, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.04, "duration": ""}], "params": {"grid_levels": 10, "grid_spacing_pct": 0.1, "rebalance_every": 20, "type": "Market Making"}, "fee_info": {"entry_fee": 0.015, "exit_fee": 0.015, "total_fee": 0.03, "taker_rate_pct": 0.045, "maker_rate_pct": 0.015, "effective_rate_pct": 0.015, "vip_tier": 0, "staking_tier": "none", "fee_model": "maker", "tier_name": "Tier 0 (<$5M)", "staking_name": "No Stake"}, "equity_curve": [{"t": "2026-07-26T03:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-07-26T04:00:00+00:00", "v": 9988.51}, {"t": "2026-07-26T05:00:00+00:00", "v": 9971.01}, {"t": "2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00", "v": 9973.96}, {"t": "2026-07-26T07:00:00+00:00", "v": 9964.51}, {"t": "2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00", "v": 9981.85}, {"t": "2026-07-26T09:00:00+00:00", "v": 9978.11}, {"t": "2026-07-26T10:00:00+00:00", "v": 9978.11}, {"t": "2026-07-26T11:00:00+00:00", "v": 9978.11}, {"t": "2026-07-26T12:00:00+00:00", "v": 9966.65}, {"t": "2026-07-26T13:00:00+00:00", "v": 9974.69}, {"t": "2026-07-26T14:00:00+00:00", "v": 10004.54}, {"t": "2026-07-26T15:00:00+00:00", "v": 10012.89}, {"t": "2026-07-26T16:00:00+00:00", "v": 10007.48}, {"t": "2026-07-26T17:00:00+00:00", "v": 10001.91}, {"t": "2026-07-26T18:00:00+00:00", "v": 10008.72}, {"t": "2026-07-26T19:00:00+00:00", "v": 9990.87}, {"t": "2026-07-26T20:00:00+00:00", "v": 9990.87}, {"t": "2026-07-26T21:00:00+00:00", "v": 9979.4}, {"t": "2026-07-26T22:00:00+00:00", "v": 10065.3}, {"t": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00", "v": 10063.61}, {"t": "2026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10022.5}, {"t": "2026-07-27T01:00:00+00:00", "v": 10034.97}, {"t": "2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00", "v": 10030.05}, {"t": "2026-07-27T03:00:00+00:00", "v": 10047.45}, {"t": "2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00", "v": 10046.68}, {"t": "2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00", "v": 10074.54}, {"t": "2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00", "v": 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"2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00", "v": 9723.83}, {"t": "2026-07-28T03:00:00+00:00", "v": 9748.61}, {"t": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00", "v": 9750.46}, {"t": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00", "v": 9765.39}, {"t": "2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00", "v": 9794.95}, {"t": "2026-07-28T07:00:00+00:00", "v": 9773.25}, {"t": "2026-07-28T08:00:00+00:00", "v": 9761.24}, {"t": "2026-07-28T09:00:00+00:00", "v": 9756.93}, {"t": "2026-07-28T10:00:00+00:00", "v": 9768.78}, {"t": "2026-07-28T11:00:00+00:00", "v": 9767.24}, {"t": "2026-07-28T12:00:00+00:00", "v": 9782.95}, {"t": "2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00", "v": 9713.05}, {"t": "2026-07-28T14:00:00+00:00", "v": 9760.93}, {"t": "2026-07-28T15:00:00+00:00", "v": 9839.6}, {"t": "2026-07-28T16:00:00+00:00", "v": 9857.15}, {"t": "2026-07-28T17:00:00+00:00", "v": 9801.57}, {"t": "2026-07-28T18:00:00+00:00", "v": 9807.27}, {"t": "2026-07-28T19:00:00+00:00", "v": 9833.29}, {"t": "2026-07-28T20:00:00+00:00", "v": 9835.6}, {"t": "2026-07-28T21:00:00+00:00", "v": 9844.99}, {"t": 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