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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/as_mm_BTC_1d_168_20260810-082913.json
T
ramseshk ad4036713e feat: recent-window backtests (week/month/year) — 207 clean results 
Archived 639 old full-history results. Re-ran sweep on time-windowed
bar limits matching practical trading horizons:

  Last week bars:  1h=168, 4h=42,  1d=7
  Last month bars: 1h=720, 4h=180, 1d=30
  Last year bars:  1h=5000, 4h=2190, 1d=365

270/270 sweep succeeded, 63 zero-trade files archived.
207 results with real trades remain.

Key findings on RECENT (year) data only:

  grid_mm:    S=13.8 (1h), S=9.3 (4h), S=8.1 (1d)
  as_mm:      S=14.8 (1h), S=8.0 (4h), S=3.3 (1d)
  composite:  S=3.2 (1h), S=2.3 (4h), S=0.7 (1d)
  mean_rev:   1d only viable (S=3.5)

  Directional strategies (momentum, obi, iceberg, hurst_vpin)
  all show near-zero or negative Sharpe on recent data.

  Market-making dominates in sideways crypto markets.

Added --window flag to sweep_runner for week/month/year presets
2026-08-10 16:35:25 +08:00

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{"strategy": "as_mm", "interval": "1d", "n_bars": 169, "start_equity": 10000.0, "end_equity": 8534.26, "total_return_pct": -14.66, "pnl": -1465.74, "sharpe": -1.843, "sortino": -2.288, "max_drawdown_pct": 15.61, "win_rate": 0.559, "profit_factor": 0.562, "expectancy": -43.11, "trades": [{"time": "2026-03-18 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.135228, "entry_px": 73937.86, "exit_px": 71141.79, "pnl_gross": -381.0519, "pnl_net": -383.9947, "fee": 2.942825, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -3.811, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-03-22 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.1395, "entry_px": 68942.87, "exit_px": 67763.17, "pnl_gross": -167.429, "pnl_net": -170.2896, "fee": 2.860574, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -1.741, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-03-26 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.132402, "entry_px": 71374.3, "exit_px": 68737.19, "pnl_gross": -351.9412, "pnl_net": -354.7239, "fee": 2.782656, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -3.724, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-03-30 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.137777, "entry_px": 66035.97, "exit_px": 66699.23, "pnl_gross": 88.6391, "pnl_net": 85.8959, "fee": 2.743179, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.974, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-04-04 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.137255, "entry_px": 66932.87, "exit_px": 67196.74, "pnl_gross": 33.4559, "pnl_net": 30.6944, "fee": 2.761494, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.364, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-04-08 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.128076, "entry_px": 71990.92, "exit_px": 70964.96, "pnl_gross": -134.1463, "pnl_net": -136.8927, "fee": 2.746383, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -1.455, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-04-12 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.124318, "entry_px": 73088.01, "exit_px": 70634.29, "pnl_gross": -307.7219, "pnl_net": -310.402, "fee": 2.68009, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -3.387, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-04-16 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.117283, "entry_px": 74848.77, "exit_px": 75054.87, "pnl_gross": 21.5344, "pnl_net": 18.8972, "fee": 2.637172, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.245, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-04-20 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.119218, "entry_px": 73814.74, "exit_px": 75726.2, "pnl_gross": 225.2052, "pnl_net": 222.531, "fee": 2.674196, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 2.559, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-04-24 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.115258, "entry_px": 78304.23, "exit_px": 77324.6, "pnl_gross": -115.6006, "pnl_net": -118.2912, "fee": 2.69062, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -1.281, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-04-28 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.115115, "entry_px": 77397.32, "exit_px": 76220.7, "pnl_gross": -138.0991, "pnl_net": -140.7516, "fee": 2.652561, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -1.55, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-05-02 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.112072, "entry_px": 78267.19, "exit_px": 78572.35, "pnl_gross": 31.5632, "pnl_net": 28.9266, "fee": 2.636598, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.36, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-05-06 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.108757, "entry_px": 80942.86, "exit_px": 81319.6, "pnl_gross": 38.3256, "pnl_net": 35.6786, "fee": 2.647077, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.435, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-05-10 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.109558, "entry_px": 80700.62, "exit_px": 82081.84, "pnl_gross": 148.6483, "pnl_net": 145.9732, "fee": 2.675118, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 1.681, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-05-14 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.113278, "entry_px": 79362.28, "exit_px": 80962.96, "pnl_gross": 178.5975, "pnl_net": 175.8733, "fee": 2.724198, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 1.987, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-05-21 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.118292, "entry_px": 77508.43, "exit_px": 77509.41, "pnl_gross": -2.6344, "pnl_net": -5.385, "fee": 2.750606, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.029, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-05-25 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.118896, "entry_px": 77092.01, "exit_px": 77204.72, "pnl_gross": 10.6482, "pnl_net": 7.8964, "fee": 2.75179, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.116, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-05-30 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.12458, "entry_px": 73660.59, "exit_px": 73779.15, "pnl_gross": 12.015, "pnl_net": 9.2598, "fee": 2.755206, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.131, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-06-03 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.137557, "entry_px": 66798.73, "exit_px": 64053.88, "pnl_gross": -380.2731, "pnl_net": -382.9731, "fee": 2.699954, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -4.139, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-06-07 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.144585, "entry_px": 60921.86, "exit_px": 63245.69, "pnl_gross": 333.299, "pnl_net": 330.6061, "fee": 2.692915, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 3.784, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-06-11 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.148542, "entry_px": 61542.48, "exit_px": 63557.38, "pnl_gross": 296.5102, "pnl_net": 293.7228, "fee": 2.787388, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 3.244, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-06-15 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.143468, "entry_px": 65785.72, "exit_px": 66227.71, "pnl_gross": 60.5698, "pnl_net": 57.7288, "fee": 2.840955, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.642, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-06-19 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150778, "entry_px": 62997.93, "exit_px": 63448.49, "pnl_gross": 65.0736, "pnl_net": 62.2138, "fee": 2.859801, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.685, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-06-23 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.149256, "entry_px": 64076.01, "exit_px": 62643.29, "pnl_gross": -216.6793, "pnl_net": -219.5164, "fee": 2.837042, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -2.266, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-06-29 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.155438, "entry_px": 60134.07, "exit_px": 60166.77, "pnl_gross": 2.2778, "pnl_net": -0.5271, "fee": 2.804898, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.024, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-03 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151656, "entry_px": 61648.59, "exit_px": 62513.42, "pnl_gross": 128.3333, "pnl_net": 125.5088, "fee": 2.824487, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 1.373, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-07 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.147816, "entry_px": 64118.05, "exit_px": 63291.64, "pnl_gross": -124.9818, "pnl_net": -127.8067, "fee": 2.824979, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -1.319, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-13 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.145638, "entry_px": 64219.15, "exit_px": 62268.67, "pnl_gross": -286.8276, "pnl_net": -289.5909, "fee": 2.763215, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -3.067, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-18 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.141924, "entry_px": 63878.81, "exit_px": 64762.17, "pnl_gross": 122.6313, "pnl_net": 119.8927, "fee": 2.738586, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 1.353, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-23 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.13798, "entry_px": 66593.53, "exit_px": 65003.93, "pnl_gross": -222.0558, "pnl_net": -224.7795, "fee": 2.723673, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -2.417, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-27 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.137037, "entry_px": 65431.37, "exit_px": 63672.26, "pnl_gross": -243.7165, "pnl_net": -246.3703, "fee": 2.653796, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -2.718, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-31 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.134573, "entry_px": 64818.75, "exit_px": 62793.14, "pnl_gross": -275.1686, "pnl_net": -277.7445, "fee": 2.575967, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -3.155, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-04 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.132919, "entry_px": 63555.49, "exit_px": 64003.93, "pnl_gross": 57.0629, "pnl_net": 54.5197, "fee": 2.543261, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.675, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-10 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.130944, "entry_px": 64949.88, "exit_px": 65184.75, "pnl_gross": 28.1981, "pnl_net": 25.642, "fee": 2.556052, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.332, "duration": ""}], "params": {"gamma": 0.1, "sigma_dynamic": true, "inventory_skew": true, "type": "Market Making"}, "fee_info": {"entry_fee": 0.015, "exit_fee": 0.015, "total_fee": 0.03, "taker_rate_pct": 0.045, "maker_rate_pct": 0.015, "effective_rate_pct": 0.015, "vip_tier": 0, "staking_tier": "none", "fee_model": "maker", "tier_name": "Tier 0 (<$5M)", "staking_name": "No Stake"}, "equity_curve": [{"t": "2026-02-23T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-02-24T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-02-25T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-02-26T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-02-27T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-01T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-02T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-03T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-04T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-05T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-06T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-07T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-08T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-09T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-10T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-11T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-12T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-13T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-14T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-15T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-16T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-03-17T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9988.51}, {"t": "2026-03-18T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9618.95}, {"t": "2026-03-19T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9618.95}, {"t": "2026-03-20T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9618.95}, {"t": "2026-03-21T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9607.9}, {"t": "2026-03-22T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9451.52}, {"t": "2026-03-23T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9451.52}, {"t": "2026-03-24T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9451.52}, {"t": "2026-03-25T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9440.66}, {"t": "2026-03-26T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9099.58}, {"t": "2026-03-27T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9099.58}, {"t": "2026-03-28T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9099.58}, {"t": "2026-03-29T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9089.12}, {"t": "2026-03-30T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9188.22}, {"t": "2026-03-31T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9188.22}, {"t": "2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9188.22}, {"t": "2026-04-02T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9177.66}, {"t": "2026-04-03T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9188.09}, {"t": "2026-04-04T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9221.67}, {"t": "2026-04-05T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9221.67}, {"t": "2026-04-06T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9221.67}, {"t": "2026-04-07T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9211.08}, {"t": "2026-04-08T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9087.53}, {"t": "2026-04-09T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9087.53}, {"t": "2026-04-10T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9087.53}, {"t": "2026-04-11T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9077.09}, {"t": "2026-04-12T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 8779.8}, {"t": "2026-04-13T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 8779.8}, {"t": "2026-04-14T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 8779.8}, {"t": "2026-04-15T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 8769.72}, {"t": "2026-04-16T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 8801.34}, {"t": "2026-04-17T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 8801.34}, {"t": "2026-04-18T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 8801.34}, {"t": "2026-04-19T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 8791.23}, {"t": "2026-04-20T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9026.54}, {"t": "2026-04-21T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9026.54}, {"t": 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