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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/pairs_BTC_1d_720_20260810-082655.json
T
ramseshk ad4036713e feat: recent-window backtests (week/month/year) — 207 clean results 
Archived 639 old full-history results. Re-ran sweep on time-windowed
bar limits matching practical trading horizons:

  Last week bars:  1h=168, 4h=42,  1d=7
  Last month bars: 1h=720, 4h=180, 1d=30
  Last year bars:  1h=5000, 4h=2190, 1d=365

270/270 sweep succeeded, 63 zero-trade files archived.
207 results with real trades remain.

Key findings on RECENT (year) data only:

  grid_mm:    S=13.8 (1h), S=9.3 (4h), S=8.1 (1d)
  as_mm:      S=14.8 (1h), S=8.0 (4h), S=3.3 (1d)
  composite:  S=3.2 (1h), S=2.3 (4h), S=0.7 (1d)
  mean_rev:   1d only viable (S=3.5)

  Directional strategies (momentum, obi, iceberg, hurst_vpin)
  all show near-zero or negative Sharpe on recent data.

  Market-making dominates in sideways crypto markets.

Added --window flag to sweep_runner for week/month/year presets
2026-08-10 16:35:25 +08:00

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{"strategy": "pairs", "interval": "1d", "n_bars": 721, "start_equity": 10000.0, "end_equity": 8124.02, "total_return_pct": -18.76, "pnl": -1875.98, "sharpe": -0.463, "sortino": -0.668, "max_drawdown_pct": 35.21, "win_rate": 0.294, "profit_factor": 0.625, "expectancy": -110.352, "trades": [{"time": "2024-11-13 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.130079, "entry_px": 76841.76, "exit_px": 90349.56, "pnl_gross": 1747.2942, "pnl_net": 1737.5076, "fee": 9.786636, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 17.481, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2024-12-10 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.121577, "entry_px": 96580.48, "exit_px": 96574.33, "pnl_gross": -11.3158, "pnl_net": -21.8832, "fee": 10.567432, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.096, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-01-07 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.119259, "entry_px": 98363.26, "exit_px": 96913.99, "pnl_gross": -183.319, "pnl_net": -193.7988, "fee": 10.479856, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -1.563, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-02-25 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.119813, "entry_px": 96379.28, "exit_px": 88598.31, "pnl_gross": -942.2323, "pnl_net": -952.2055, "fee": 9.973224, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -8.16, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-05-22 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.102849, "entry_px": 103119.02, "exit_px": 111787.1, "pnl_gross": 881.5548, "pnl_net": 871.6085, "fee": 9.946296, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 8.312, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-06-14 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.1056, "entry_px": 108776.67, "exit_px": 105280.61, "pnl_gross": -379.3552, "pnl_net": -389.5272, "fee": 10.172002, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -3.303, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-08-02 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.101868, "entry_px": 109038.93, "exit_px": 112389.5, "pnl_gross": 331.1668, "pnl_net": 321.0163, "fee": 10.150412, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 2.981, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-08-20 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.097265, "entry_px": 117602.48, "exit_px": 114134.75, "pnl_gross": -347.4333, "pnl_net": -357.5763, "fee": 10.142965, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -3.037, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-09-02 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.094733, "entry_px": 117079.96, "exit_px": 111113.77, "pnl_gross": -574.9245, "pnl_net": -584.6523, "fee": 9.727864, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -5.184, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2025-12-13 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.114156, "entry_px": 92126.03, "exit_px": 90131.78, "pnl_gross": -237.0181, "pnl_net": -246.3807, "fee": 9.36262, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -2.254, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-01-09 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.11335, "entry_px": 90690.6, "exit_px": 90559.35, "pnl_gross": -24.1223, "pnl_net": -33.3674, "fee": 9.245107, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -0.235, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-01-20 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.109435, "entry_px": 93714.62, "exit_px": 88315.6, "pnl_gross": -599.8077, "pnl_net": -608.7719, "fee": 8.964215, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -5.849, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-03-27 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.128871, "entry_px": 74928.85, "exit_px": 66329.6, "pnl_gross": -1116.3842, "pnl_net": -1124.576, "fee": 8.191853, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -11.561, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-04-04 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.125312, "entry_px": 68152.08, "exit_px": 67196.74, "pnl_gross": -127.3487, "pnl_net": -134.9811, "fee": 7.632374, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -1.491, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-04-19 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.115107, "entry_px": 73088.01, "exit_px": 73667.26, "pnl_gross": 59.0736, "pnl_net": 51.4719, "fee": 7.601651, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 0.702, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-06-06 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.132, "entry_px": 64182.12, "exit_px": 60800.14, "pnl_gross": -453.8439, "pnl_net": -461.2678, "fee": 7.423946, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": -5.357, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-02 00:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.12801, "entry_px": 62638.58, "exit_px": 63492.44, "pnl_gross": 102.0381, "pnl_net": 94.7724, "fee": 7.265714, "fee_rate_pct": 0.045, "return_pct": 1.273, "duration": ""}], "params": {"z_entry": 1.5, "z_exit": 0.5, "lookback": 20, "type": "Stat Arb"}, "fee_info": {"entry_fee": 0.045, "exit_fee": 0.045, "total_fee": 0.09, "taker_rate_pct": 0.045, "maker_rate_pct": 0.015, "effective_rate_pct": 0.045, "vip_tier": 0, "staking_tier": "none", "fee_model": "taker", "tier_name": "Tier 0 (<$5M)", "staking_name": "No Stake"}, "equity_curve": [{"t": "2024-08-20T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2024-08-21T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": 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