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ftdt-quant-lab/backtests/results/grid_mm_BTC_1h_720_20260810-083017.json
T
ramseshk ad4036713e feat: recent-window backtests (week/month/year) — 207 clean results 
Archived 639 old full-history results. Re-ran sweep on time-windowed
bar limits matching practical trading horizons:

  Last week bars:  1h=168, 4h=42,  1d=7
  Last month bars: 1h=720, 4h=180, 1d=30
  Last year bars:  1h=5000, 4h=2190, 1d=365

270/270 sweep succeeded, 63 zero-trade files archived.
207 results with real trades remain.

Key findings on RECENT (year) data only:

  grid_mm:    S=13.8 (1h), S=9.3 (4h), S=8.1 (1d)
  as_mm:      S=14.8 (1h), S=8.0 (4h), S=3.3 (1d)
  composite:  S=3.2 (1h), S=2.3 (4h), S=0.7 (1d)
  mean_rev:   1d only viable (S=3.5)

  Directional strategies (momentum, obi, iceberg, hurst_vpin)
  all show near-zero or negative Sharpe on recent data.

  Market-making dominates in sideways crypto markets.

Added --window flag to sweep_runner for week/month/year presets
2026-08-10 16:35:25 +08:00

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{"strategy": "grid_mm", "interval": "1h", "n_bars": 721, "start_equity": 10000.0, "end_equity": 9252.05, "total_return_pct": -7.48, "pnl": -747.95, "sharpe": -3.268, "sortino": -4.696, "max_drawdown_pct": 9.79, "win_rate": 0.216, "profit_factor": 0.331, "expectancy": -20.311, "trades": [{"time": "2026-07-11 10:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.155674, "entry_px": 64227.16, "exit_px": 64114.82, "pnl_gross": -20.4857, "pnl_net": -23.4826, "fee": 2.996926, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.205, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-11 18:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.155193, "entry_px": 64294.23, "exit_px": 64266.67, "pnl_gross": -7.27, "pnl_net": -10.2628, "fee": 2.992763, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.073, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-12 02:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.154692, "entry_px": 64455.39, "exit_px": 64016.92, "pnl_gross": -70.8093, "pnl_net": -73.7903, "fee": 2.981046, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.71, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-12 20:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.154008, "entry_px": 64282.22, "exit_px": 64137.8, "pnl_gross": -25.2084, "pnl_net": -28.1751, "fee": 2.966657, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.255, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-18 04:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.154317, "entry_px": 63989.93, "exit_px": 63891.04, "pnl_gross": -18.2192, "pnl_net": -21.1793, "fee": 2.960131, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.185, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-19 01:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.153385, "entry_px": 64260.2, "exit_px": 64692.24, "pnl_gross": 63.3025, "pnl_net": 60.3356, "fee": 2.966906, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.642, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-19 06:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.152898, "entry_px": 64878.81, "exit_px": 64641.29, "pnl_gross": -39.2868, "pnl_net": -42.2573, "fee": 2.970505, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.396, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-24 22:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.152568, "entry_px": 64761.7, "exit_px": 64079.86, "pnl_gross": -106.9754, "pnl_net": -109.924, "fee": 2.948565, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -1.083, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-25 02:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.152445, "entry_px": 64112.05, "exit_px": 63948.99, "pnl_gross": -27.7862, "pnl_net": -30.7146, "fee": 2.92834, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.284, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-25 06:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151979, "entry_px": 64126.06, "exit_px": 63914.02, "pnl_gross": -35.1445, "pnl_net": -38.0634, "fee": 2.91891, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.361, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-25 11:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151955, "entry_px": 63904.84, "exit_px": 63967.97, "pnl_gross": 6.6778, "pnl_net": 3.7632, "fee": 2.914637, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.069, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-25 19:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151438, "entry_px": 64167.1, "exit_px": 64303.63, "pnl_gross": 17.7574, "pnl_net": 14.8391, "fee": 2.918303, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.183, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-25 23:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.151229, "entry_px": 64373.31, "exit_px": 64296.64, "pnl_gross": -14.5135, "pnl_net": -17.4323, "fee": 2.918794, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.149, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-26 03:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150579, "entry_px": 64554.49, "exit_px": 64455.48, "pnl_gross": -17.8228, "pnl_net": -20.7367, "fee": 2.913929, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.183, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-26 09:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150278, "entry_px": 64565.5, "exit_px": 64443.49, "pnl_gross": -21.2433, "pnl_net": -24.1514, "fee": 2.908082, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.219, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-26 19:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.150095, "entry_px": 64502.44, "exit_px": 64604.33, "pnl_gross": 12.3869, "pnl_net": 9.4802, "fee": 2.906742, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.128, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-07-30 10:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.149404, "entry_px": 64883.82, "exit_px": 64488.45, "pnl_gross": -61.9695, "pnl_net": -64.8688, "fee": 2.89931, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.639, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-01 01:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.148614, "entry_px": 64811.75, "exit_px": 62877.06, "pnl_gross": -290.3684, "pnl_net": -293.2148, "fee": 2.846452, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -3.015, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-01 07:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.148033, "entry_px": 63105.04, "exit_px": 62954.98, "pnl_gross": -25.013, "pnl_net": -27.8121, "fee": 2.799156, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.268, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-01 11:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.147494, "entry_px": 63166.1, "exit_px": 62982.95, "pnl_gross": -29.8043, "pnl_net": -32.5952, "fee": 2.790934, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.32, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-01 22:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.147305, "entry_px": 63044.98, "exit_px": 62741.2, "pnl_gross": -47.5284, "pnl_net": -50.3077, "fee": 2.77934, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.512, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-02 07:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.14695, "entry_px": 62873.81, "exit_px": 63403.53, "pnl_gross": 75.059, "pnl_net": 72.2756, "fee": 2.783468, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.812, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-05 09:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.147313, "entry_px": 63228.16, "exit_px": 64062.87, "pnl_gross": 120.1507, "pnl_net": 117.3379, "fee": 2.812744, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 1.29, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-06 03:00:00", "side": 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"entry_px": 64853.79, "exit_px": 64849.09, "pnl_gross": -3.4533, "pnl_net": -6.2344, "fee": 2.781076, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.037, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-09 15:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.142011, "entry_px": 65256.19, "exit_px": 65134.8, "pnl_gross": -20.0165, "pnl_net": -22.794, "fee": 2.777543, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": -0.216, "duration": ""}, {"time": "2026-08-10 08:00:00", "side": "BUY", "asset": "BTC", "size": 0.141742, "entry_px": 65239.17, "exit_px": 65274.0, "pnl_gross": 3.5492, "pnl_net": 0.7743, "fee": 2.77488, "fee_rate_pct": 0.015, "return_pct": 0.038, "duration": ""}], "params": {"grid_levels": 10, "grid_spacing_pct": 0.1, "rebalance_every": 20, "type": "Market Making"}, "fee_info": {"entry_fee": 0.015, "exit_fee": 0.015, "total_fee": 0.03, "taker_rate_pct": 0.045, "maker_rate_pct": 0.015, "effective_rate_pct": 0.015, "vip_tier": 0, "staking_tier": "none", "fee_model": "maker", "tier_name": "Tier 0 (<$5M)", "staking_name": "No Stake"}, "equity_curve": [{"t": "2026-07-11T08:00:00+00:00", "v": 10000.0}, {"t": "2026-07-11T09:00:00+00:00", "v": 9988.51}, {"t": "2026-07-11T10:00:00+00:00", "v": 9979.51}, {"t": "2026-07-11T11:00:00+00:00", "v": 9979.51}, {"t": "2026-07-11T12:00:00+00:00", "v": 9979.51}, {"t": "2026-07-11T13:00:00+00:00", "v": 9968.05}, {"t": "2026-07-11T14:00:00+00:00", "v": 9986.21}, {"t": "2026-07-11T15:00:00+00:00", "v": 9959.51}, {"t": "2026-07-11T16:00:00+00:00", "v": 9959.2}, {"t": "2026-07-11T17:00:00+00:00", "v": 9981.86}, {"t": "2026-07-11T18:00:00+00:00", "v": 9972.24}, {"t": "2026-07-11T19:00:00+00:00", "v": 9972.24}, {"t": "2026-07-11T20:00:00+00:00", "v": 9960.79}, {"t": "2026-07-11T21:00:00+00:00", "v": 9956.3}, {"t": "2026-07-11T22:00:00+00:00", "v": 9932.63}, {"t": "2026-07-11T23:00:00+00:00", "v": 9872.92}, {"t": "2026-07-12T00:00:00+00:00", "v": 9873.85}, {"t": "2026-07-12T01:00:00+00:00", "v": 9921.19}, {"t": "2026-07-12T02:00:00+00:00", "v": 9901.44}, {"t": 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