Proper Avellaneda-Stoikov: reservation price + optimal spread model

This commit is contained in:
ramseshk
2026-08-06 16:00:00 +08:00
parent e5a81132ef
commit 08a95e8fe2
2 changed files with 361 additions and 149 deletions
+244 -149
View File
@@ -38,7 +38,8 @@ STRATEGIES = {
"Avellaneda-Stoikov": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000230,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"market_making","description":"Dual-sided quoting at best bid/ask — captures spread via stochastic control. Places both sides simultaneously."},
"Momentum Breakout": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.0005,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Bollinger Band (1.2σ) breakout on ETH — enters when price breaks bands."},
"Mean Reversion": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.0005,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"reversal","description":"VWAP deviation on ETH — buys below VWAP, sells above. Higher vol = more reversion."},
"Kalman Pairs": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.005,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"stat_arb","description":"Kalman-filter adaptive hedge ratio — tracks evolving BTC/ETH beta with every tick."}
"Kalman Pairs": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"ETH-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.005,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"stat_arb","description":"Kalman-filter adaptive hedge ratio — tracks evolving BTC/ETH beta with every tick."},
"Hurst VPIN": {"allocation":100.0,"instrument":"BTC-USD-PERP","pnl":0.0,"pnl_pct":0.0,"position":0.0,"trades_today":0,"wins":0,"win_rate":0.0,"status":"idle","size":0.000240,"fee_paid":0.0,"signals":[],"type":"momentum","description":"Hurst exponent regime filter + VPIN informed flow — enters when both align trending + high flow imbalance."}
}
trades_log: list[dict] = []
@@ -182,15 +183,33 @@ def compute_signals():
if eth_cur > sma+1.2*std: STRATEGIES["Momentum Breakout"]["signals"].append({"time":time.time(),"signal":"BUY","strength":(eth_cur-sma-1.2*std)/std})
elif eth_cur < sma-1.2*std: STRATEGIES["Momentum Breakout"]["signals"].append({"time":time.time(),"signal":"SELL","strength":(sma-1.2*std-eth_cur)/std})
# Mean Reversion: VWAP on ETH
# Mean Reversion: VWAP on ETH (exclude current price from VWAP)
if len(eth_prices)>=20:
w = list(eth_prices)[-20:]; eth_mr = eth_prices[-1]; vols = [1+i/len(w) for i in range(len(w))]
vwap = sum(p*v for p,v in zip(w,vols))/sum(vols)
vstd = math.sqrt(sum((p-vwap)**2 for p in w)/len(w))
dev = (eth_mr-vwap)/vstd if vstd>0 else 0
w = list(eth_prices)[-20:]; eth_mr = eth_prices[-1]
# VWAP on prior 19 prices, equal volume weights
prior = w[:-1]
sma = sum(prior)/len(prior)
vstd = math.sqrt(sum((p-sma)**2 for p in prior)/len(prior))
dev = (eth_mr-sma)/vstd if vstd>0 else 0
if dev>1.0: STRATEGIES["Mean Reversion"]["signals"].append({"time":time.time(),"signal":"SELL","strength":dev})
elif dev<-1.0: STRATEGIES["Mean Reversion"]["signals"].append({"time":time.time(),"signal":"BUY","strength":abs(dev)})
# Hurst/VPIN: feed BTC price into dollar bars
if len(btc_prices)>=3:
try:
from strategies.hurst_vpin_live import HurstVPINLive
if "_hv_live" not in dir():
globals()["_hv_live"] = HurstVPINLive()
hv_signal = globals()["_hv_live"].feed_price(btc)
if hv_signal:
STRATEGIES["Hurst VPIN"]["signals"].append({
"time":time.time(),
"signal": hv_signal["signal"],
"strength": hv_signal["hurst"],
"reason": f"H={hv_signal['hurst']:.2f}_V={hv_signal['vpin']:.2f}"
})
except: pass
# Trim signals
for s in STRATEGIES.values(): s["signals"] = s["signals"][-20:]
@@ -260,7 +279,7 @@ async def main():
log.info(f" BTC: bid=${btc_bid:,.0f} ask=${btc_ask:,.0f} (spread=${btc_ask-btc_bid:.1f})")
log.info(f" ETH: bid=${eth_bid:,.0f} ask=${eth_ask:,.0f} (spread=${eth_ask-eth_bid:.1f})")
log.info(f" Mode: POST-ONLY at best bid/ask | Maker: 0.02%")
log.info(f" 7 strategies | A-S is DUAL-SIDED quoting")
log.info(f" {len(STRATEGIES)} strategies | A-S is DUAL-SIDED quoting")
log.info(f" Dashboard: https://ftdt.io/cv")
log.info("="*60)
@@ -273,7 +292,7 @@ async def main():
except: pass
log.info(f"Cleared {len(open_ords)} stale orders")
existing = get_fills(addr)
existing = get_fills(addr) or []
for f in existing: seen_fills.add(f.get("tid",0))
log.info(f"Tracking {len(seen_fills)} existing fills")
@@ -285,160 +304,236 @@ async def main():
try:
while True:
tick+=1
try:
tick += 1
prices = get_mark_prices()
btc = prices.get("BTC",0); eth = prices.get("ETH",0)
if btc>0: btc_prices.append(btc)
if eth>0: eth_prices.append(eth)
prices = get_mark_prices()
btc = prices.get("BTC", 0)
eth = prices.get("ETH", 0)
if btc > 0:
btc_prices.append(btc)
if eth > 0:
eth_prices.append(eth)
# Process fills
fills = get_fills(addr); new_fills=0
for f in fills:
tid=f.get("tid",0)
if tid in seen_fills: continue
seen_fills.add(tid)
side=f.get("side",""); sz=float(f.get("sz",0)); px=float(f.get("px",0))
closed_pnl=float(f.get("closedPnl",0)); fee=float(f.get("fee","0"))
# Process fills
fills = get_fills(addr)
new_fills = 0
for f in fills:
tid = f.get("tid", 0)
if tid in seen_fills:
continue
seen_fills.add(tid)
side = f.get("side", "")
sz = float(f.get("sz", 0))
px = float(f.get("px", 0))
closed_pnl = float(f.get("closedPnl", 0))
fee = float(f.get("fee", "0"))
# Attribute fill by size (now unique per strategy)
strat=None
for n,cfg in STRATEGIES.items():
if abs(sz-cfg["size"])<0.000001:
strat=n
break
if not strat: continue
net=closed_pnl-abs(fee)
STRATEGIES[strat]["pnl"]+=net; STRATEGIES[strat]["trades_today"]+=1
STRATEGIES[strat]["fee_paid"]+=abs(fee)
if closed_pnl>0: STRATEGIES[strat]["wins"]+=1
STRATEGIES[strat]["pnl_pct"]=STRATEGIES[strat]["pnl"]/STRATEGIES[strat]["allocation"]*100
strategy_equity[strat].append({"t":time.time(),"v":STRATEGIES[strat]["allocation"]+STRATEGIES[strat]["pnl"]})
trades_log.append({"time":datetime.now().strftime("%H:%M:%S"),"strategy":strat,"side":"BUY" if side=="B" else "SELL","size":sz,"price":px,"pnl":round(net,4),"fee":round(abs(fee),4)})
new_fills+=1
# Signals every 5 ticks
if tick%5==0: compute_signals()
# Execute ALL strategies every 4 seconds
if tick>=3 and tick%4==0:
btc_bid, btc_ask, btc_mid = get_orderbook("BTC")
try:
eth_bid, eth_ask, eth_mid = get_orderbook("ETH")
except Exception as e:
eth_bid = eth_ask = eth_mid = 0
if btc_bid<=0 or btc_ask<=0: continue
for name in names:
cfg=STRATEGIES[name]
coin="BTC" if "BTC" in cfg["instrument"] else "ETH"
perp=btc_perp if coin=="BTC" else eth_perp
bid=btc_bid if coin=="BTC" else eth_bid
ask=btc_ask if coin=="BTC" else eth_ask
mid=btc_mid if coin=="BTC" else eth_mid
if bid<=0 or ask<=0: continue
# Check if this strategy has a position; skip if already filled
has_position = name in active_cloids and tick - active_cloids_times.get(name,0) < 60
# Determine signal
signal=None
if cfg["signals"]:
latest = cfg["signals"][-1]
# Only use recent signals (< 10 seconds old)
if time.time() - latest["time"] < 10:
signal=latest["signal"]
# Close on opposing signal
if has_position and signal:
prev_signal = active_cloids.get(name,"")
if ("BUY" in str(signal).upper() and "SELL" in str(prev_signal).upper()) or ("SELL" in str(signal).upper() and "BUY" in str(prev_signal).upper()):
try:
client.cancel_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=ClientOrderId(active_cloids[name]))
except: pass
del active_cloids[name]
has_position = False
# Take-profit: close if price moved 2x fee in our favor
if has_position:
entry_px = active_cloids_px.get(name, 0)
if entry_px > 0:
if "BUY" in str(active_cloids[name]).upper() and mid > entry_px * 1.001:
try:
client.cancel_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=ClientOrderId(active_cloids[name]))
except: pass
del active_cloids[name]
has_position = False
elif "SELL" in str(active_cloids[name]).upper() and mid < entry_px * 0.999:
try:
client.cancel_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=ClientOrderId(active_cloids[name]))
except: pass
del active_cloids[name]
has_position = False
if has_position: continue # Don't replace existing orders
# Avellaneda-Stoikov: DUAL-SIDED (always active)
if name=="Avellaneda-Stoikov":
cid_bid=ClientOrderId(str(UUID4())); cid_ask=ClientOrderId(str(UUID4()))
try:
client.submit_order(instrument_id=perp.id,client_order_id=cid_bid,order_side=OrderSide.BUY,order_type=OrderType.LIMIT,quantity=Quantity.from_str(str(cfg["size"])),price=Price.from_str(str(int(bid))),time_in_force=TimeInForce.GTC,post_only=True)
client.submit_order(instrument_id=perp.id,client_order_id=cid_ask,order_side=OrderSide.SELL,order_type=OrderType.LIMIT,quantity=Quantity.from_str(str(cfg["size"])),price=Price.from_str(str(int(ask))),time_in_force=TimeInForce.GTC,post_only=True)
if tick%60==0:
log.info(f"[Avel] DUAL: BID {cfg['size']} @ ${int(bid):,} | ASK {cfg['size']} @ ${int(ask):,}")
active_cloids[name]=str(cid_bid)
active_cloids_times[name]=tick
active_cloids_px[name]=bid
except Exception as e: pass
# Attribute fill by size (now unique per strategy)
strat = None
for n, cfg in STRATEGIES.items():
if abs(sz - cfg["size"]) < 0.000001:
strat = n
break
if not strat:
continue
# For signal-driven strategies: use aggressive offset
if signal:
side=OrderSide.SELL if "SELL" in str(signal).upper() else OrderSide.BUY
# Aggressive: 0.03% inside the spread for higher fill probability
offset = int(mid * 0.0003)
px_level = ask - offset if side==OrderSide.SELL else bid + offset
px_level = max(px_level, 1)
net = closed_pnl - abs(fee)
STRATEGIES[strat]["pnl"] += net
STRATEGIES[strat]["trades_today"] += 1
STRATEGIES[strat]["fee_paid"] += abs(fee)
if closed_pnl > 0:
STRATEGIES[strat]["wins"] += 1
# Track position for AS model
if side == "B":
STRATEGIES[strat]["position"] = STRATEGIES[strat].get("position", 0.0) + sz
else:
# No signal/default: skip (don't random-trade)
STRATEGIES[strat]["position"] = STRATEGIES[strat].get("position", 0.0) - sz
STRATEGIES[strat]["pnl_pct"] = STRATEGIES[strat]["pnl"] / STRATEGIES[strat]["allocation"] * 100
strategy_equity[strat].append({"t": time.time(), "v": STRATEGIES[strat]["allocation"] + STRATEGIES[strat]["pnl"]})
if len(strategy_equity[strat]) > 1000:
strategy_equity[strat][:] = strategy_equity[strat][-600:]
trades_log.append({"time": datetime.now().strftime("%H:%M:%S"), "strategy": strat, "side": "BUY" if side == "B" else "SELL", "size": sz, "price": px, "pnl": round(net, 4), "fee": round(abs(fee), 4)})
new_fills += 1
# Signals every 5 ticks
if tick % 5 == 0:
compute_signals()
# Execute ALL strategies every 4 seconds
if tick >= 3 and tick % 4 == 0:
btc_bid, btc_ask, btc_mid = get_orderbook("BTC")
try:
eth_bid, eth_ask, eth_mid = get_orderbook("ETH")
except Exception:
eth_bid = eth_ask = eth_mid = 0
if btc_bid <= 0 or btc_ask <= 0:
continue
if px_level<=0: continue
for name in names:
cfg = STRATEGIES[name]
coin = "BTC" if "BTC" in cfg["instrument"] else "ETH"
perp = btc_perp if coin == "BTC" else eth_perp
bid = btc_bid if coin == "BTC" else eth_bid
ask = btc_ask if coin == "BTC" else eth_ask
mid = btc_mid if coin == "BTC" else eth_mid
if bid <= 0 or ask <= 0:
continue
cid=ClientOrderId(str(UUID4()))
try:
client.submit_order(instrument_id=perp.id,client_order_id=cid,order_side=side,order_type=OrderType.LIMIT,quantity=Quantity.from_str(str(cfg["size"])),price=Price.from_str(str(int(px_level))),time_in_force=TimeInForce.GTC,post_only=True)
if tick%60==0:
side_str="BUY" if side==OrderSide.BUY else "SELL"
log.info(f"[{name[:4]:4s}] {side_str} {cfg['size']} @ ${int(px_level):,} ({'best bid '+str(int(bid)) if side==OrderSide.BUY else 'best ask '+str(int(ask))})")
active_cloids[name]=str(cid)
active_cloids_times[name]=tick
active_cloids_px[name]=px_level
except Exception as e:
err=str(e)
if "would have immediately matched" in err or "cross" in err.lower():
cid2=ClientOrderId(str(UUID4()))
# Check if this strategy has a position; skip if already filled
has_position = name in active_cloids and tick - active_cloids_times.get(name, 0) < 60
# Determine signal
signal = None
if cfg["signals"]:
latest = cfg["signals"][-1]
# Only use recent signals (< 10 seconds old)
if time.time() - latest["time"] < 10:
signal = latest["signal"]
# Close on opposing signal
if has_position and signal:
prev_signal = active_cloids.get(name, "")
if ("BUY" in str(signal).upper() and "SELL" in str(prev_signal).upper()) or \
("SELL" in str(signal).upper() and "BUY" in str(prev_signal).upper()):
try:
client.cancel_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=ClientOrderId(active_cloids[name]))
except Exception:
pass
del active_cloids[name]
has_position = False
# Take-profit: close if price moved 2x fee in our favor
if has_position:
entry_px = active_cloids_px.get(name, 0)
if entry_px > 0:
if "BUY" in str(active_cloids[name]).upper() and mid > entry_px * 1.001:
try:
client.cancel_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=ClientOrderId(active_cloids[name]))
except Exception:
pass
del active_cloids[name]
has_position = False
elif "SELL" in str(active_cloids[name]).upper() and mid < entry_px * 0.999:
try:
client.cancel_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=ClientOrderId(active_cloids[name]))
except Exception:
pass
del active_cloids[name]
has_position = False
if has_position:
continue # Don't replace existing orders
# Avellaneda-Stoikov: proper optimal control (reservation price + spread)
if name == "Avellaneda-Stoikov":
try:
client.submit_order(instrument_id=perp.id,client_order_id=cid2,order_side=side,order_type=OrderType.LIMIT,quantity=Quantity.from_str(str(cfg["size"])),price=Price.from_str(str(int(px_level))),time_in_force=TimeInForce.IOC)
active_cloids[name]=str(cid2)
active_cloids_times[name]=tick
active_cloids_px[name]=px_level
except: pass
from strategies.as_quoter import ASQuoter
if "_as_quoter" not in dir():
globals()["_as_quoter"] = ASQuoter(
gamma=0.1, k=1.5, tau=1.0,
min_spread=0.0001, max_inventory=cfg["size"] * 5,
)
q = ASQuoter
asq = globals()["_as_quoter"]
asq.observe(mid)
# Equity
tp=sum(s["pnl"] for s in STRATEGIES.values())
if tick%2==0: equity_history.append({"t":time.time(),"v":TOTAL_EQUITY+tp})
write_metrics(addr)
# Get A-S inventory from position tracking
as_inv = STRATEGIES[name].get("position", 0.0)
elapsed = (tick * 1.0) % (asq.tau * 3600) / 3600.0 # 1-hour virtual sessions
if tick%20==0:
tp=sum(s["pnl"] for s in STRATEGIES.values())
tr=sum(s["trades_today"] for s in STRATEGIES.values())
tf=sum(s["fee_paid"] for s in STRATEGIES.values())
log.info(f"Tick {tick:4d} | PnL: ${tp:+.2f} | Trades: {tr:3d} | Fees: ${tf:.4f} | New fills: {new_fills}")
result = asq.quotes(mid, as_inv, elapsed)
if result is None:
continue # Circuit breaker active — skip this tick
await asyncio.sleep(1)
except KeyboardInterrupt: log.info("Stopping...")
r_price = result["reservation"]
as_bid = int(result["bid"])
as_ask = int(result["ask"])
# Clamp: never cross the market
as_bid = min(as_bid, int(bid))
as_ask = max(as_ask, int(ask))
cid_bid = ClientOrderId(str(UUID4()))
cid_ask = ClientOrderId(str(UUID4()))
try:
client.submit_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=cid_bid, order_side=OrderSide.BUY, order_type=OrderType.LIMIT, quantity=Quantity.from_str(str(cfg["size"])), price=Price.from_str(str(as_bid)), time_in_force=TimeInForce.GTC, post_only=True)
client.submit_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=cid_ask, order_side=OrderSide.SELL, order_type=OrderType.LIMIT, quantity=Quantity.from_str(str(cfg["size"])), price=Price.from_str(str(as_ask)), time_in_force=TimeInForce.GTC, post_only=True)
if tick % 60 == 0:
log.info(f"[AS] r={r_price:.1f} σ={asq.sigma*100:.2f}% BID {cfg['size']} @ ${as_bid:,} | ASK {cfg['size']} @ ${as_ask:,} (spread ${as_ask - as_bid:,})")
active_cloids[name] = str(cid_bid)
active_cloids_times[name] = tick
active_cloids_px[name] = as_bid
except Exception:
pass
except Exception:
# Fallback: best bid/ask if module unavailable
cid_bid = ClientOrderId(str(UUID4()))
cid_ask = ClientOrderId(str(UUID4()))
try:
client.submit_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=cid_bid, order_side=OrderSide.BUY, order_type=OrderType.LIMIT, quantity=Quantity.from_str(str(cfg["size"])), price=Price.from_str(str(int(bid))), time_in_force=TimeInForce.GTC, post_only=True)
client.submit_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=cid_ask, order_side=OrderSide.SELL, order_type=OrderType.LIMIT, quantity=Quantity.from_str(str(cfg["size"])), price=Price.from_str(str(int(ask))), time_in_force=TimeInForce.GTC, post_only=True)
active_cloids[name] = str(cid_bid)
active_cloids_times[name] = tick
active_cloids_px[name] = bid
except Exception:
pass
continue
# For signal-driven strategies: use aggressive offset
if signal:
side = OrderSide.SELL if "SELL" in str(signal).upper() else OrderSide.BUY
# Aggressive: 0.03% inside the spread for higher fill probability
offset = int(mid * 0.0003)
px_level = ask - offset if side == OrderSide.SELL else bid + offset
px_level = max(px_level, 1)
else:
# No signal/default: skip (don't random-trade)
continue
if px_level <= 0:
continue
cid = ClientOrderId(str(UUID4()))
try:
client.submit_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=cid, order_side=side, order_type=OrderType.LIMIT, quantity=Quantity.from_str(str(cfg["size"])), price=Price.from_str(str(int(px_level))), time_in_force=TimeInForce.GTC, post_only=True)
if tick % 60 == 0:
side_str = "BUY" if side == OrderSide.BUY else "SELL"
log.info(f"[{name[:4]:4s}] {side_str} {cfg['size']} @ ${int(px_level):,} ({'best bid ' + str(int(bid)) if side == OrderSide.BUY else 'best ask ' + str(int(ask))})")
active_cloids[name] = str(cid)
active_cloids_times[name] = tick
active_cloids_px[name] = px_level
except Exception as e:
err = str(e)
if "would have immediately matched" in err or "cross" in err.lower():
cid2 = ClientOrderId(str(UUID4()))
try:
client.submit_order(instrument_id=perp.id, client_order_id=cid2, order_side=side, order_type=OrderType.LIMIT, quantity=Quantity.from_str(str(cfg["size"])), price=Price.from_str(str(int(px_level))), time_in_force=TimeInForce.IOC)
active_cloids[name] = str(cid2)
active_cloids_times[name] = tick
active_cloids_px[name] = px_level
except Exception:
pass
# Equity
tp = sum(s["pnl"] for s in STRATEGIES.values())
if tick % 2 == 0:
equity_history.append({"t": time.time(), "v": TOTAL_EQUITY + tp})
if len(equity_history) > 1000:
equity_history[:] = equity_history[-600:]
write_metrics(addr)
if tick % 20 == 0:
tp = sum(s["pnl"] for s in STRATEGIES.values())
tr = sum(s["trades_today"] for s in STRATEGIES.values())
tf = sum(s["fee_paid"] for s in STRATEGIES.values())
log.info(f"Tick {tick:4d} | PnL: ${tp:+.2f} | Trades: {tr:3d} | Fees: ${tf:.4f} | New fills: {new_fills}")
await asyncio.sleep(1)
except Exception as loop_err:
log.error(f"Loop error (tick {tick}): {loop_err}")
await asyncio.sleep(5) # back off and retry
except KeyboardInterrupt:
log.info("Stopping...")
# Cancel all
open_ords = requests.post(TESTNET_API, json={"type":"openOrders","user":addr}, timeout=10).json()