fantabeto/src/optimization/transfer_analyzer.py

"""Transfer market analysis ('Svincolati' / free agent pool).

Identifies buy-low and sell-high targets using advanced metrics:
- Regression to the mean: compares actual vs expected output
- xG/xA vs actual goals/assists divergence
- Minutes trending up/down
- Market value arbitrage
"""

import logging
from typing import Optional

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)


class TransferAnalyzer:
    """Analyzes the Svincolati (free agent) market for arbitrage opportunities."""

    def __init__(self, regression_factor: float = 0.3):
        self.regression_factor = regression_factor

    def compute_expected_output(
        self, xg: float, xa: float, historical_mean: float
    ) -> float:
        """Compute regressed expected output using xG/xA.

        Shrinks toward the player's historical mean (regression to the mean).
        """
        raw_expected = xg * 3.0 + xa * 1.0  # convert to Fantavoto scale
        regressed = (
            self.regression_factor * historical_mean +
            (1 - self.regression_factor) * raw_expected
        )
        return regressed

    def analyze_buy_low(
        self, players_df: pd.DataFrame, min_minutes: int = 180
    ) -> pd.DataFrame:
        """Identify buy-low candidates.

        Criteria:
        - xG/xA significantly exceed actual output
        - Minutes trending up
        - Low market value relative to projection

        Args:
            players_df: DataFrame with columns:
                [name, team, role, actual_fv_avg, xg, xa, minutes, market_value,
                minutes_trend, historical_fv_avg]

        Returns:
            DataFrame of buy-low candidates ranked by opportunity.
        """
        df = players_df.copy()
        df = df[df["minutes"] >= min_minutes]

        if "xg" not in df.columns or "xa" not in df.columns:
            logger.warning("xG/xA data missing; using basic analysis")
            return pd.DataFrame()

        # Expected fantavoto from xG/xA
        df["expected_fv"] = df.apply(
            lambda r: self.compute_expected_output(
                r.get("xg", 0), r.get("xa", 0), r.get("historical_fv_avg", 6.0)
            ),
            axis=1,
        )

        # Divergence: expected minus actual
        df["fv_divergence"] = df["expected_fv"] - df.get("actual_fv_avg", 6.0)

        df["buy_low_score"] = (
            df["fv_divergence"] * 2.0 +  # underperformance signal
            df.get("minutes_trend", 0) * 0.5 +  # trending up
            (1.0 / (df.get("market_value", 1) + 1)) * 10  # cheap
        )

        buy_low = df[df["buy_low_score"] > 0].sort_values("buy_low_score", ascending=False)

        result = buy_low[[
            "name", "team", "role", "actual_fv_avg", "expected_fv",
            "fv_divergence", "buy_low_score", "market_value",
        ]].copy()

        result["recommendation"] = "BUY-LOW"
        result["confidence"] = pd.cut(
            result["buy_low_score"],
            bins=[-np.inf, 1, 3, 5, np.inf],
            labels=["Low", "Medium", "High", "Very High"],
        )

        logger.info(
            f"Found {len(result)} buy-low candidates "
            f"(avg divergence: {result['fv_divergence'].mean():.2f})"
        )
        return result

    def analyze_sell_high(
        self, players_df: pd.DataFrame, min_minutes: int = 180
    ) -> pd.DataFrame:
        """Identify sell-high candidates.

        Criteria:
        - Actual output exceeds xG/xA by large margin
        - Minutes trending down
        - High market value vs projection
        """
        df = players_df.copy()
        df = df[df["minutes"] >= min_minutes]

        if "xg" not in df.columns:
            return pd.DataFrame()

        df["expected_fv"] = df.apply(
            lambda r: self.compute_expected_output(
                r.get("xg", 0), r.get("xa", 0), r.get("historical_fv_avg", 6.0)
            ),
            axis=1,
        )

        # Overperformance
        df["fv_divergence"] = df.get("actual_fv_avg", 6.0) - df["expected_fv"]

        df["sell_high_score"] = (
            df["fv_divergence"] * 3.0 +  # overperformance signal
            (df.get("minutes_trend", 0) * -0.5 if "minutes_trend" in df.columns else 0)
        )

        sell_high = df[df["sell_high_score"] > 1].sort_values("sell_high_score", ascending=False)

        result = sell_high[[
            "name", "team", "role", "actual_fv_avg", "expected_fv",
            "fv_divergence", "sell_high_score",
        ]].copy()

        result["recommendation"] = "SELL-HIGH"
        logger.info(f"Found {len(result)} sell-high candidates")
        return result

    def full_transfer_report(self, players_df: pd.DataFrame) -> dict:
        """Generate complete transfer market report."""
        buy = self.analyze_buy_low(players_df)
        sell = self.analyze_sell_high(players_df)

        return {
            "buy_low": buy,
            "sell_high": sell,
            "summary": (
                f"Buy-low targets: {len(buy)} players identified. "
                f"Sell-high targets: {len(sell)} players identified."
            ),
        }