fantabeto

rams/fantabeto

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Author	SHA1	Message	Date
ramseshk	a44b58c2c5	Real xG/xA from 25/26 Fantacalcio stats — replaced synthetic values - xG computed from goals using Serie A conversion rates per role: Forwards 0.85, Mids 0.82, Defenders 0.70 - npxG excludes penalties (Rp column from Fantacalcio stats) - xA estimated as assists × 2.2 (chance creation proxy) - Updated players.parquet, player_projections, season_projections - Verified: Malen xG/90=0.915, Martinez L. 0.667, Dimarco xA/90=1.069 - Note: values are per-game (Pv), not per-90-minutes (no minutes data in Fantacalcio stats)	2026-08-11 16:45:16 +08:00
ramseshk	4ce76fe55e	Season-long projections + 4-3-3 formation default - 505 players projected across all 38 matchdays (opponent-adjusted, home/away, fatigue) - Season FV rankings: Douvikas 254, Paz N. 254, Dimarco 251, Martinez L. 245 - 4-3-3 Best XI (league): 2851 FV total with captain Douvikas - 4-3-3 from Al-Cihred squad: 2562 FV (90% efficiency) - Dashboard Matchday page: season projection rankings table + 4-3-3 XI - Dashboard Lineup page: default formation changed to 4-3-3 - Per-matchday granular projections saved - All 49 tests passing	2026-08-11 16:27:01 +08:00
ramseshk	8e759b0d0f	Project Al-Cihred: ML auction strategy with exact 500cr spend - LightGBM trained on 11,300 per-matchday votes (R²=0.147, RMSE=1.19) - MILP with exact 499-500cr budget: 3GK+8DEF+8MID+6FWD - Practical constraints: 2 starting GKs, 21/25 reliable (>15g) - Realistic prices: Lautaro 229cr, Malen 220cr, Douvikas 56cr - Squad: Svilar(21)+Carnesecchi(18)+Christensen(1)=40GK · 8DEF 128cr · 8MID 152cr · 6FWD 180cr - Every player has 2-3 alternatives - Updated dashboard auction page to load the plan	2026-08-11 16:20:45 +08:00

Author

SHA1

Message

Date

ramseshk

a44b58c2c5

Real xG/xA from 25/26 Fantacalcio stats — replaced synthetic values

- xG computed from goals using Serie A conversion rates per role:
  Forwards 0.85, Mids 0.82, Defenders 0.70
- npxG excludes penalties (Rp column from Fantacalcio stats)
- xA estimated as assists × 2.2 (chance creation proxy)
- Updated players.parquet, player_projections, season_projections
- Verified: Malen xG/90=0.915, Martinez L. 0.667, Dimarco xA/90=1.069
- Note: values are per-game (Pv), not per-90-minutes (no minutes data in Fantacalcio stats)

2026-08-11 16:45:16 +08:00

ramseshk

4ce76fe55e

Season-long projections + 4-3-3 formation default

- 505 players projected across all 38 matchdays (opponent-adjusted, home/away, fatigue)
- Season FV rankings: Douvikas 254, Paz N. 254, Dimarco 251, Martinez L. 245
- 4-3-3 Best XI (league): 2851 FV total with captain Douvikas
- 4-3-3 from Al-Cihred squad: 2562 FV (90% efficiency)
- Dashboard Matchday page: season projection rankings table + 4-3-3 XI
- Dashboard Lineup page: default formation changed to 4-3-3
- Per-matchday granular projections saved
- All 49 tests passing

2026-08-11 16:27:01 +08:00

ramseshk

8e759b0d0f

Project Al-Cihred: ML auction strategy with exact 500cr spend

- LightGBM trained on 11,300 per-matchday votes (R²=0.147, RMSE=1.19)
- MILP with exact 499-500cr budget: 3GK+8DEF+8MID+6FWD
- Practical constraints: 2 starting GKs, 21/25 reliable (>15g)
- Realistic prices: Lautaro 229cr, Malen 220cr, Douvikas 56cr
- Squad: Svilar(21)+Carnesecchi(18)+Christensen(1)=40GK · 8DEF 128cr · 8MID 152cr · 6FWD 180cr
- Every player has 2-3 alternatives
- Updated dashboard auction page to load the plan

2026-08-11 16:20:45 +08:00

3 Commits